Brexit: Theresa May’s deal is terrible for UK ?

The U.K.’s Prime Minister, Theresa May, has succeeded in what she set out to do. She has brought the country together. Politicians of all colors, along with their supporters, are at last in full agreement. They are united in their hatred of Mrs. May’s Brexit deal. And with reason. It is a terrible deal.

Criticism of the deal has centered on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, and in particular on the proposed “backstop” to ensure that Northern Ireland’s border with Ireland remains open after Brexit.

After Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will become an international border, rather than an intra-EU border as at present. In the absence of a trade agreement, both the EU and the U.K. would be obliged to apply the WTO’s “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) rules on that border. This would mean tariffs and regulatory checks on a border which is politically highly sensitive, because of its long history of conflict, and economically extremely important to the economies of Northern Ireland and its southern neighbour.

Neither the U.K. nor the EU wants there to be a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit.

The Withdrawal Agreement breaks this deadlock by providing for the U.K. to remain in the EU’s Customs Union, and Northern Ireland in the Single Market, not merely until the end of the transitional period scheduled to end in December 2020, but until a replacement trade agreement can be negotiated, or (potentially) indefinitely if none can be agreed.

This is by any measure unsatisfactory. Everyone hates “frozen Brexit.” But the backstop is not the only problem with this deal.

Right from the start, both sides have tried to find a way of maintaining frictionless trade after Brexit, particularly across the Irish border. But neither side has been willing to compromise on its principles. Rather, each side has attempted to push the other into crossing its red lines.

Freedom of Movement of goods & services, capital, information, and people is fundamental to the EU.

The U.K. tried to separate Freedom of Movement from the other Freedoms so that the U.K. could continue to enjoy frictionless trade with the EU while restricting immigration from the EU. But the EU has steadfastly insisted that the Four Freedoms are indivisible. It repeats this statement in the Political Declaration.

Thus, in the words of Theresa May, “nothing has changed.” As far as the EU is concerned, if the U.K. wants frictionless trade with the EU, it must remain in the Single Market and Customs Union. This means accepting freedom of movement of people, respecting the primacy of EU law in matters of trade, and refraining from striking trade deals with third countries or blocs that would confer an unfair advantage over EU countries.

It is an appalling deal. It merely buys time at the cost of a considerably weaker negotiating position for the U.K. But the EU has already said it will not renegotiate it. If this deal fails, then the options are still no-deal Brexit, or no Brexit. The Government has no mandate for either, and nor does either option command a majority in Parliament. All roads seem now to lead to either a General Election, or a second referendum.