Global equities have powered ahead in recent weeks, in line with our pro-growth investment stance. Our view remains that the global macro backdrop should continue to support investor economic confidence and drive the valuations higher over the next year.
Still, there is a risk for some near-term disappointments, given that the Chinese housing market and industrial economy are maybe downshifting more than investors acknowledge. Also, the US ISM manufacturing index has been boosted by US dollar weakness and is likely to pull back somewhat.
– After an especially strong first quarter (+1.9% year-on-year), growth surprised once again in the second quarter (+2.2%). This pace is above potential and above its 2010-2015 average.
– Credit growth remains solid and beneficial to both companies and households
– Order books and economic surveys suggest that the positive trend will continue
– The political environment has become favourable after elections in France and the Netherlands
– US growth is currently above its potential
– The United States has seen positive growth since 2010
– Household savings have declined over the past two years. Strength of growth will depend on households’ consumption-to-savings ratio
– Trumponomics is not dead against the background of hurricane impact
– The economy continues to decelerate gradually to a more sustained speed of around 5% in the medium term. It is expected to slow in Q2 17, but also to transform itself toward more consumption and services
– Beyond the growth objectives, the authorities are looking to curb financial excesses and to diversify in and outflows channels. State Owned Enterprises (SOE) restructuring remains the weak link of the current reforms
The political risk is now behind us in France, it is time to go back to fundamentals. While underlying conditions in the global economy are strengthening, some data may disappoint and trigger a countertrend setback in markets. The economic surprise index has recently weakened (mostly in the US and the UK), the Chinese economy could slowdown later this year and Trump’s promises are being pushed back or diluted. As the equity market is now up 10%, is it time to take profit? The slack in the global inflation figures could persist over the next few weeks, but this should be a temporary move. Indeed, the cyclical macro backdrop remains supportive for equity prices and negative for bonds. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 1.9% YoY in April from 1.5% in March.
As of today, all the polls are suggesting that Macron and Le Pen are likely to oppose each other in the second and final round of the presidential vote. The key to victory may come down to a single factor – voter turnout in the second round. Assuming that turnout is along the lines of historical standards (about 80%), Marine Le Pen needs to win 18m voices. Polls currently suggest she will win 12m. And yet, the scenario of a very low turnout must be kept on the table, especially if François Fillon makes it through to the second round. Aversion against Fillon is such among leftist voters that they could be tempted to turn in a blank ballot or not vote at all.
The economic outlook is bright enough to warrant a pro risk investment stance. Our overweight equities/ underweight duration seems consistent with a firming of global growth and an unwinding of prior deflation fear.
ODDO BHF Asset Management is the ODDO BHF Group’s asset management arm.
Since August 2015, it unites the activities of ODDO BHF AM SAS and ODDO BHF AM GmbH.
With 43 billion euros in assets under management* and 270 employees, the Franco-German ODDO BHF AM is one of the Euro zone’s leading independent investment management companies. As a specialist in the European markets, ODDO BHF AM offers its clients a unique range of high-performance investment solutions in all main asset classes, including European equities, corporate bonds (both investment grade and high yield), convertible bonds and asset allocation solutions.
A unique Franco-German identity, a global reach
Two key investment centres in Paris and Dusseldorf
In-depth understanding of the dynamics of French and German financial markets
Additional distribution offices in Milan, Geneva, Frankfurt, Madrid and Stockholm
Research, fundamental and quantitative, at the heart of our management
• Extensive knowledge of listed companies thanks to our internal fundamental research, equity and credit
• Proprietary quantitative models developed for our systematic management
Expert in asset allocation
• Proven know-how over time on asset allocation in our institutional portfolios and in our open funds
Risk management – a performance driver over time?
• Our target: outperform the markets over the long term thanks to astute management of portfolio risks
OUR INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS
– Fixed income and credit
– Convertible bonds
– Equity-fundamental management
– Equity-systematic management
– Diversified management and asset allocation
KEY INFORMATION
• 270 employees
• €43bn in assets under management
• Paris and Düsseldorf
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