Brexit: The Fear is the best help for Theresa May

Sunday’s agreement, sealed after 18 months of negotiations between Brussels and London, aims to conclude the UK’s 45-year membership in the European bloc, smoothing its exit followed by a 21-month transition period, and outlining a vision for what the future trading and security partnership might look like.

Critics of May’s deal – Eurosceptic and Europhile alike – say May’s deal leaves the UK beholden to EU regulations upon which it will have no say. May, for her part, is betting her compatriots understand that “in any negotiation, you do not get everything you want”, as she said Sunday.

All eyes now turn to a “meaningful” vote, which will take place in the House of Commons on December 11, just days before the next European Council meeting on December 13 and 14.

May needs only a simple majority in Parliament to pass the deal, or 320 votes if all lawmakers turn up to vote. The prime minister’s Conservative Party has 314 active MPs, opposition parties 313 and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the party propping up May’s government after a fraught general election last year, has 10.

This is a bad deal for the country. It is the result of a miserable failure of negotiation that leaves us with the worst of all worlds. It gives us less say over our future, and puts jobs and living standards at risk,” opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said in a statement on Sunday. “That is why Labour will oppose this deal in Parliament. We will work with others to block a no-deal outcome, and ensure that Labour’s alternative plan for a sensible deal to bring the country together is on the table.”

Speaking of just wanting to get on with it, Brussels and individual EU leaders have been clear that there is little to be gained from hopes for a new deal. “Those who think that, by rejecting the deal, they would get a better deal, will be disappointed,” European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters in Brussels after Sunday’s extraordinary summit. When asked whether a House of Commons defeat of the pact could put it back on the table, Juncker said, “This is the best deal possible.”

May might not yet have the votes on her side, but she has one persuasive element on her side: Fear. The very real possibility that the UK could crash out of the EU overnight on March 29 (no deal means no transition period, either) may sharpen minds and get reluctant moderates on side, either before December’s meaningful vote or beyond it as the clock ticks down to purported catastrophe.

The Economist points out that, well beyond trade troubles, a no-deal Brexit “would see many legal obligations and definitions lapse immediately, potentially putting at risk air travel, electricity interconnections and a raft of financial services, and throwing into doubt the status of EU citizens in Britain and British citizens in the EU.” Inflation would rise and the British pound’s fall would be “unavoidable”, potentially even “vertiginous”, the London-based economic weekly predicts.

The hardest line Brexiteers have stuck to the “no deal is better than a bad deal” line. Tory rebel Jacob Rees-Mogg’s European Research Group of hardline pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers favours a Canada-style free trade deal or no deal at all. But its recent bid to force a no-confidence vote in Theresa May has so far fallen short of the 48 lawmakers necessary to trigger one.

For many Remainers, “no deal” is more unpalatable than Brexit itself. “My red line is I don’t want us to crash out without a deal,” Labour MP Caroline Flint told Reuters. “I just think it’s really high-stakes stuff,” said Flint, a former British Minister for Europe and a Remain voter whose northern English constituency backed Brexit.

On Tuesday, the European Court of Justice will hold an urgent one-day hearing over whether Article 50 can be revoked and the UK unilaterally withdraw its decision to leave the EU. If Europe’s highest court concludes that Brexit can be unilaterally withdrawn, it could give succour to proponents of yet another option: That the UK could simply change its mind and remain in the EU after a second referendum. May has consistently ruled out holding a new vote and London fought to stop Tuesday’s hearing on the grounds the question was irrelevant as a result.

For all of this wrangling and soul-searching – 29 months after the fateful 2016 referendum that touched off Brexit – over the 585-page withdrawal agreement, the pages that actually outline the future of London’s relationship with the EU number only 26. Or, as Corbyn characterised them, “26 pages of waffle”.