Eurozone

You didn’t think European political risk was over, did you?

Markets have largely shrugged off events in Catalonia. They are probably correct to do so.

After all, Catalonia is unlikely to become independent, at least for the foreseeable future. There does not appear to be a majority in the region in favour of independence (although that could change). Constitutionally, Spain is a unitary, indivisible state, so there is currently no legal route to independence. And international opposition to independence, at the margin, makes it more difficult.

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ECB will cut QE within January 2018

The European Central Bank on Thursday left interest rates unchanged at historic lows and said its bond-buying programme (quantitative easing, QE) would fall from the present rate of 60 billion euros a month to 30 billion from January to September.
It will continue at 60 billion a month until December. The purchases would continue at least until September 2018.

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ECB: eurozone banks are mostly ready after stress test

Most big eurozone banks are well braced for possible future interest rate rises, the European Central Bank said Monday after running dozens of them through a stress test. On a scale running from a top mark of 1 to the lowest of 4, 60 out of 111 banks scored 1 or 2 in the test, the ECB said.

For the first time, the stress test examined how sudden changes in interest rates will affect banks’ income and the value of their assets. Of the other banks, 34 received a mark of 3 and 17 scored a 4.

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Eurozone unemployment falls to lowest since 2009

The eurozone’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in more than eight years, but the annual rate of inflation is unchanged, new data showed Monday, highlighting the challenge at the heart of the European Central Bank’s decision on dialing down its stimulus programs.

The European Union’s statistics agency said the proportion of workers without jobs across the 19 countries that use the euro fell to 9.1% in June from 9.2% in May, reaching its lowest level since February 2009. But consumer prices were just 1.3% higher in July than a year earlier, as the rate of inflation was unchanged, at its lowest level in 2017.

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