Brexit could get worse people’s health

Any deal under which the UK exits the EU will push up prices, cutting the amount of fresh produce people buy, according to an academic study.

A no-deal Brexit would have the worst impact, leading to more than 12,000 extra deaths between 2021 and 2030, data suggested.

Researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Liverpool looked at how different Brexit scenarios would lead to increased costs of imported fruit and vegetables, resulting in people potentially eating less and increasing their risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

The study, published in the British Medical Journal Open, found that all trade scenarios they looked at would reduce fruit and vegetable intake in the UK.

A no-deal Brexit was deemed as the scenario most damaging to public health, with researchers estimating that there will be 12,400 additional deaths from CVD in England between 2021 and 2030.

Yesterday, bosses at supermarkets and food chains wrote to MPs urging them to avoid a no-deal Brexit and warned of the risks that it could reduce the availability of many products.

Almost one-third of the food consumed in the UK comes from the European Union, they stressed.

In March the situation is more acute as UK produce is out of season: 90% of our lettuces, 80% of our tomatoes and 70% of our soft fruit is sourced from the EU at that time of year.
“As this produce is fresh and perishable, it needs to be moved quickly from farms to our stores,” they said in a letter to MPs.

“The UK government must consider the public health implications of Brexit trade policy options, including changes to the price of key food groups,” Professor Christopher Millett, from the School of Public Health at Imperial said.

The UK’s exit from the European Union has long been framed in terms of its political and social importance. But this study shows that the impact of Brexit will reach far beyond the economy and may affect people’s risk of disease.
In 2017, 84% of fruit and 43% of vegetables eaten in the UK in were imported from the European Union and non-EU countries.

Writing in the journal BMJ Open, the researchers said: “A no-deal Brexit scenario could be the most harmful, increasing coronary heart disease and stroke deaths by approximately 0.9 per cent (4,110 deaths) and 2.9 per cent (8,290 deaths) respectively between 2021 and 2030.

“The least disruptive scenario modelled, which assumes a free-trading agreement with the EU and half of non-EU fruit and veg importers, could increase coronary heart disease and stroke deaths by approximately 0.3% (1,360 deaths) and 1.0% (2,740 deaths) respectively.”

Some of the scenarios tested by researchers included a free-trading agreement with the EU and third-party countries, a free-trading agreement with the EU, and a no-deal Brexit without a new trade agreement. Under all scenarios, the price of fruit and veg imported would increase substantially due to additional import tariffs and trade costs.

According to the authors, a limitation of this study is that the scenarios modelled are not exhaustive and do not reflect all Brexit scenarios currently being debated.

The research also looks solely at England, but the authors claim that similar impacts are likely in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The authors also emphasised that the outcomes of their research are consistent with previous research on Brexit which estimated the cost of eating five portions of fruit and vegetables per day is likely to increase for the average family in Britain – with estimates of an average increase of about £2.20 per week for a family of four.

Paraskevi Seferidi, a PhD researcher at Imperial and first author of the study, said: “The UK is highly dependent on imports, especially for fresh fruits and vegetables. These have a strong protective effect on health.

“Our paper illustrates, for the first time, the potential negative impacts of Brexit on fruit and veg prices, intake, heart disease and stroke.”

The researchers said the scenarios they modelled are not exhaustive and do not reflect all Brexit scenarios currently being debated.