From a trade war to a currency war?
Since Donald Trump announced on 5 May a 15pt hike in trade tariffs on $ 200bn of Chinese imports in the US, the yuan has depreciated against the dollar. This […]
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US trade tariffs – who is really paying for them?
After months of easing in trade tensions, the tariff war has suddenly restarted. According to the US administration, China has reneged on a number of promises. In retaliation, Donald Trump […]
What do diffusion indices say about the risk of recession in the US?
In 2016, the last time there were real fears of a US recession, the economy’s weakness was intense, but very much focused on certain sectors or regions. At the start […]
What’s Germany worth without the automotive industry?
After a dramatic slump in 2018, the business climate has tended to stabilise in Germany over the last few months, which suggests that the bad news (slowing global growth, geopolitical […]
US growth: a decent Q1 but no acceleration in sight
Growth of the US economy in Q1 is unlikely to be as weak as feared at the start of the year. The government shutdown was then in full swing, the […]
US inflation: temporary respite in 2019
As a result of the recent decline in oil prices, US inflation is expected to slow significantly in the short term, with a low point in the region of 1.5% […]
Scary monsters… Trump, China and the Fed
This is the first time since 2016 that the start of the year has been marked by so many concerns about the world economy. And not without reason. The markets […]
Improving portfolio efficiency
Playing by the rules – the power of quantitative management Quantitative equity fund management is underlain by a structured and disciplined process based on predefined rules. Hence, irrationality can be […]