Electric cars: more than 100 million on the road within 2030

There will be enough electric cars on the road for roughly every person in Japan — the world’s 11th most populous country — in just more than two decades, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Electric vehicle (EV) ownership will balloon to about 125 million by 2030, spurred by policies that encourage drivers, fleets and municipalities to purchase clean-running cars, the policy advisor to energy-consuming nations forecast on Wednesday.

That marks a big jump from 2017, when the IEA estimated there were 3.1 million electric vehicles in use, up 54 percent from the previous year.

In China, the world’s biggest market for electric vehicles, sales also grew by about half — but their market share remained small at 2.2 per cent.

In Norway electric vehicles have by far the world’s highest market share, but even there it is still only 6.4 per cent, according to the IEA.

Nonetheless, the Paris-based agency was optimistic about the sector’s prospects.

“Supportive policies and cost reductions are likely to lead to significant growth in the market uptake of (electric vehicles) in the outlook period to 2030,” the report said.

But the IEA said that in order for the cars of the future to overtake their petrol and diesel-powered competitors, governments will have to take the lead.

“The main markets by volume (China) and sales share (Norway) have the strongest policy push,” the IEA said.

“Looking ahead, the strongest current policy signals emanate from electric car mandates in China and California, as well as the European Union’s recent proposal on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions standards for 2030.”

The European Union has committed to cutting 40 per cent of its greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels, and to boosting its use of renewable energy by at least 27 per cent.

France, home to Europe’s second-biggest car industry after Germany, has gone further by announcing a plan to end sales of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040, as part of an ambitious plan to meet its targets under the Paris climate accord.

Electric vehicles use batteries instead of petrol or diesel, thereby massively reducing their damage to the environment.

The shift to EVs will increase demand for some materials, especially cobalt and lithium used in lithium-ion batteries.

Cobalt demand is expected to be ten times higher than current levels by 2030 at 101 kilotonnes (kt) per year under current policies and could be as much as 25 times higher at 291 kt/year with more ambitious government policies, the IEA estimates.

Lithium demand is forecast to be 91 kt/year by 2030 based on current policies and 263 kt/year if more ambitious polices are implemented.

So far, rising numbers of EVs on the road have had a limited impact on electricity demand. In 2017, estimated global electricity demand from all EVs was 54 terrawatt hours, equivalent to slightly more than the power demand of Greece.

However, as electric vehicle uptake continues to rise their charging will increase electricity demand and impact transmission and distribution grids, the report said.