Expert Commentary: Focus on US economic outlook

What is likely to affect the US economic activity in the near term?

I suppose that the US economy is on a fairly solid and steady growth path at the moment. I think that there are no serious policy errors and the economy will continue to show steady performance in the near term. However, possible policy errors would be an upturning protectionist action and probably the ending of the NAFTA, while tax measures would make a positive contribution to the economy. Nevertheless, I do not think the economic impact of the latter would be as strong as some people hope; there would be a moderate support and sustaining recovery rather than a strong boost.

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Expert Commentary: Focus on Canadian Economy and CAD

Latest reports revealed that the Consumer Price Index for July remained at about the same level it was seen back in June, when it was reported to have increased 1.2% y/y/. Is it reasonable to expect a higher inflation in the next quarter?

Yes, we do see inflation in Canada grinding higher in the next 3-6 months, though it is going to be a slow track up to the bank’s 2% target. Some of the weaknesses has occurred due to temporary factors that are likely going to reverse to some extent in the nearest future. At this point, we continue to believe that the economy is operating at a relatively high level and that the growth will create modest inflation pressure.

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