XAU/USD: two scenarios likely

On Wednesday, the XAU/USD exchange rate tumbled to the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement at 1,273.68. During Thursday’s morning, the rate declined to the 1,272.00 level.  

Given, that the rate is trading near the lower boundary of the falling wedge pattern at 1,270.00, it is unlikely, that bears could prevail in the market.

From a theoretical perspective, a reversal north should occur in the nearest future. In this case, the price for gold could target the 1,276.00 level. 

However, if the given pattern does not hold, a breakout south might occur, and the rate might decline to the 1,268.00 mark.