Recession on the horizon in case of Brexit

The killing of the British MEP Jo Cox anti-Brexit froze the election campaign, at least for a day. But the IMF has launched a new alarm about the dangers caused by the possible exit of Britain from the European Union, stating that there would be a recession early as next year, with GDP in 2017 under the adverse scenario is expected at -0.8% and they would return to grow, deficit, debt and unemployment. Note that the baseline scenario foresaw a growth of 2.2% and the base case of intermediate impact + 1.4%.

For this year, Britain is expected to grow by 1.9% in the EU in case of permanence, but the estimated GDP would drop 1.7% in case of limited impact and 1.1% the adverse situation.

All this for a ripple effect that the UK economy would trigger: braking of trade, investment reduction, layoffs, lower incomes, lower consumption, devaluation of the pound and so on in a downward spiral. The crisis could also be long-term.

However, the European institutions want to prove to bring calm. Commission President Jean Claude Juncker urged Britons not to leave the EU, because otherwise you will get a "period of uncertainty" for the EU and the whole world, but at the same time not lost his temper and states that " 'EU would not be life threatening and continue the integration process ".