Bak Basel sees positive sign for Switzerland

Experts at BAK Basel revised growth forecasts for the Swiss economy: according to the institute, gross domestic product will rise by 2.0% both in 2017 and in 2018. So far, the expectations were for an increase of 1.7 respectively % and 1.9%.

The inflation and long-term interest rates should go back to being positive. The experts then provide a new economic cycle, after the swiss economy was in an exceptional situation caused by the financial crisis, Martin Eichler, BAK Basel chief economist, said in the note.

“After the exceptional situation in the years since 2009, this prognosis is once again showing a stronger development towards a typical economic cycle structure,” it said, referring to the global financial crisis that has also affected Switzerland.

BAK Basel’s prediction is more positive than other economic forecasters. The big banks UBS and Credit Suisse have put growth for next year at 1.3% and 1.5% respectively. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute and the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) have both put forward 1.8%.

However, the analysis does not forget the important global political risks that are present on the world stage, as the election of Donald Trump in the US, the difficult situations in Italy and Russia, as well as the problems related to Brexit.