May’s chance is to change in Open Brexit

8 years ago - Published in Finance, Fundamental Analysis

Supporters of "hard" and "soft" Brexit tried to take advantage of the political chaos in Britain on Monday to promote their visions amid fears that their rivalry could revive old divisions in the Conservative Party.

Prime Minister Theresa May is in a weakened position after losing her parliamentary majority in last week's snap election, leaving her vulnerable to both hardliners and moderates in her party.

"May has lost all authority on Brexit and everything else. All options are back on the table," Stephen Barber, associate professor of public policy at London South Bank University, told AFP.

The Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has called for Theresa May to pause the Brexit negotiations to build a new cross-party, “four-nation” consensus on the UK’s approach.

Sturgeon said the general election result had left the UK government so unstable and weak it was vital that May sought the support of devolved governments and opposition parties to agree a common position before the talks with the EU, due to begin next week.

“The Tories’ hard Brexit plan has been rejected and we cannot allow the Brexit negotiations to become hostage to the inability of either the Tories or Labour to command a clear majority,” she underlined.
She wants membership of the European single market and the customs union to be "at the heart" of the process.
But Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted the UK will be leaving both. The UK government has also previously rejected Ms Sturgeon's calls for the Scottish government to be involved in the Brexit talks, and for Scotland to keep its single market membership even if the rest of the UK leaves.

Meanwhile, there is no reason for EU leaders to make May's life easier. So far, the Brexit-related chaos has helped pro-EU politicians beat nationalist populists in major Western European nations. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose brand-new party has almost secured a historic victory in the French parliamentary election, and Merkel, who is riding high in the polls and is likely to be re-elected in September, have the strong mandates necessary for a pitched battle. The EU leaders, both the Brussels bureaucrats led by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, will avoid looking as though they're kicking May when she's down. On Friday, European Council president Donald Tusk warned Mrs May there was “no time to lose”. 

Negotiations with Brussels on the UK's departure from the EU are due to start on June 19. The clock has been ticking on the two-year process since March 29, when May triggered Article 50.