Bitcoin could be in a ugly period for next 5 years

7 years ago - Published in Fintech Land

Anthony Pompliano, founder and partner, Morgan Creek Digital Assets has predicted that bitcoin could fall as low as $3,000 in a complete turnaround from one of the market’s most bullish positions.

In a post, Pompliano stated that his January prediction of a $50,000 year-end bitcoin price was wide of the mark by as much as four years.

He explains: “Parabolic increases in price continue to take longer – each parabolic run is measured from the last all-time high to the new all-time high. The first rapid price appreciation took just over 300 days (2010 – 2011) and the second took over 900 days (2011 – 2013). The last parabolic price increase peaked at ~$20,000 (2013 – 2017) and took almost 1,500 days to complete.”

Pompliano’s latest prediction is more in tune with long-term trends involving the bitcoin price. While past behavior is never a solid indicator of what will happen in the future, it is expected that the next price high could take as many as 2,000 days to become a reality, and we may not see bitcoin strike solid ground until 2023. Previously, Morgan Creek Capital Management had predicted that bitcoin would hit the $500,000 mark by the year 2024.

In Pompliano’s view, a review of available data suggests a number of unpleasant outcomes, notably that the price of bitcoin is more likely to hit $3,000 in the short term than anywhere near $10,000, which means that there is still a price decline of roughly 50% ahead.

Concluding, Pompliano reiterated that he still beleives bitcoin will hit $50,000, albeit in 2022 or 2023. His advice to investors is to buckle up and prepare for the worst while doing their own research in the interim.

And yet despite all this, there remains a handful of bulls that believe bitcoin is destined for greatness – and very soon. For example, cryptocurrency portfolio manager Jeet Singh recently commented at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the present volatility investors are witnessing in the bitcoin space is completely normal, and that the asset could reach $50,000 by the end of the year.

In his speech, Singh compares bitcoin with the stocks of both Microsoft and Apple. He explains that initially, both stocks were quite volatile, and as the companies continued to develop and solidify their business models, both rose considerably and quickly.