Expert opinion

Reality Check

The Fed seems not to understand why there is so little inflation with the economy doing so well that a rate rise in December is probable and two or three more increases in 2018 are possible. There are various pundits that claim the US is doing well on many fronts with the unemployment percentage employed as an argument to prove that the Wall Street rally is thoroughly justified.

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Crash or No Crash, again

The US stock markets have been hitting new highs recently with the result that it seems as if there is hardly any risk involved in investing in US dollar equities. Even if the FAANGs account for most of the north-bound movement and large numbers of companies have seen their quotations headings southwards, Wall Street hype glorifies the advances made so far and the presstitutes follow along like lemmings.

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Oil should continue to retrace during October, before it resumes its uptrend towards year-end.

Following their retracement down during the Spring, China and Industrial metals have been moving up since May. Oil has followed with a lag, and from late June, it has been rallying strongly. Again, following China and Industrial Metals by a few weeks, oil topped out late September. We believe that this is an intermediate top and that from November, at the latest, it should resume up towards year-end.

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Electric Cars

Tesla has been one of the greatest cash burners in history. The stock price is based on the assumption that electric motors in cars will soon replace internal combustion engines and that this change will mean huge revenues and profits for Mr Musk. Investors believe that their money should be in stocks that have the potential for future capital gains. There is a problem with this theory, and that is that other car manufacturers can relatively quickly put electric cars on the road.

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