The AES software system emulates the persuasive power of the vast expert sales and customer service that a company has to offer and can be used in any channel of communication for a particular industry.
Wall street is experiencing a bullish cycle that is more than seven months old. How long will it last? Doubts regarding the sustainability of this trend continue to rise; they are more than justified if we consider that this season of the year is the less favourable from a statistical point of view. One month ago, the S&P 500 had given an early warning signal through a pullback of more than 1% within a single session. It didn’t happen since months but the market had more or less ignored such signal since the uptrend had quickly resumed. It happens often this way: a first pullback occurs, then the stock hunters intervene at the earliest opportunity to jump into the market at prices just a bit lower than the highs, a typical behaviour reflecting the ripeness of the uptrending cycle and, by consequence, its vulnerability.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid dropped less than expected in the week ended June 2. The Labour Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims fell 10K to 245K last week, following the preceding week’s upwardly revised figure of 255K. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a bigger decrease to 241K during the reported week. Nevertheless, claims remained below the 300K level for the 118th consecutive week, the longest streak since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of the existing labour market trends, rose 2.25K to 242K during the reported week.
As a stock picker and value investor I rarely get involved in discussing macro issues during Investment Committees or during meetings with clients. Anyway, since talking about Trump, Macron, volatility and US Non-Farm Payrolls seems to be fund managers’ main occupation, I’ll try my best… But please, as grandpa Warren once told us, always remember: “Market forecasters will fill your ear but never fill your wallet”.
The swings of economies and financial markets resemble the swings of a pendulum. They spend most of the time oscillating near the average, swinging toward or away from the extremes of the arc. But when they reach one extreme you can be sure that sooner or later they are going to swing back to the midpoint. That’s because the effort needed to reach the extreme is the premise for the swing back. It goes without saying that investors don’t have to get caught in that movement (…and hopefully profit from that).
But, and there is one big fat “BUT”: no one can constantly and correctly predict the timing of the “swing back”.
The only thing that we can do is trying to figure out what the market conditions are at present. In better words: “We may never know where we’re going, but we’d better have a good idea where we are” (H. Marks).
Here’s an asset class that continues to defy the odds. Despite concerns of high debt levels, growing geopolitical risks and sluggish global growth, emerging markets (EM) corporate debt has once again delivered another year of impressive results.
This year sees a continuation of many of the same challenges, not least the uncertainty over what Donald Trump’s US presidency will look like. Anyone hoping that Trump’s campaign promises were just talk won’t have been overly encouraged by his first week in the White House. The Republican has already signed two proclamations, seven executive orders and seven presidential memoranda. His decision to ban the entry of citizens from seven predominantly Muslim countries has ruffled more than a few international feathers, while his pledge to renounce the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal – a signature policy of Obama – has also raised eyebrows.
The forecasts by the World Gold Council, in the Metals Focus Database of Mines, suggest irreversible trends: extracting gold, just like extracting diamonds, will be increasingly costly and difficult.
The price of Bitcoins has risen more than tenfold since it bottomed in February 2015. Such a parabolic move can be compared to the rise in Silver or Gold towards 1980 or 2011, or the NASDAQ in the run-up to its 2000 top during the dot.com bubble. And indeed, the promise of a finite non Fiat universal currency, which is easy to store and transfer are huge. Amid capital flight out of China and legalization in Japan, Bitcoins are finding increased legitimacy either as a practical store a value or as the possible next international transaction currency. We hereby attempt to monitor this parabolic rise, an exercise which is never easy.
When summer kicks off officially, the office feels tighter and tighter. The time has perhaps arrived to think about vacation and gadgets that are either useful or fun to have. […]
