Expert opinion

During Obama’s presidency, the US energy industry was hit strongly by environmental protection measures. Now, oil and gas industry is expected to surge forward. Do you share this point of view or not? In your opinion, will Trump’s regulations help the US become more energy independent?

At the moment, it is hard to say whether the energy industry is really going to surge forward thanks to Trump’s regulations. Still, with relatively low oil prices, the industry is not going to receive more money regardless of any regulations the President might implement. What I mean is that the government can still make these rules easier for the companies, but it will not change the investment significantly. Overall, the new regulations implementation might be positive, but it is still not a game changer. Furthermore, I suppose that there is no need for the President to relax the environmental regulations because the industry is already capable of meeting higher environmental standards.

The rapid rise in interest rates during H2 2016 and the concomitant fall of Gold prices did bring back memories of the 2012 -2013 sell-off of the Golden metal. Yet, we believe that this time is different: while the 2012-2013 was driven by the prospects of tapering which led to a subsequent rise in real interest rates, the current environment is more reflationary with measured improvement in inflation and growth worldwide. These economic dynamics should be supportive for Gold prices over the next 12 to 18 months. We would hence consider Gold as a reflationary asset with a defensive twist.

The current rally is now the second- longest in history and that equity prices are extraordinarily high with a P/E ratio of 25 or even more according to other calculations. The real economy does not justify Wall Street`s seductive optimism.

…"We focus entirely on what we call the next generation of emerging markets, what we call the frontier markets…"

President Trump clearly wants to avoid friction with Xi Jinping and therefore no longer rails against China.

Generally, investing in smaller companies is riskier than investing in larger companies. Large caps tend to be less volatile during rough markets as investors fly to quality and become more risk-averse. The long-term statistics certainly suggest that smaller companies do indeed outperform larger ones.

Mid caps lie between large cap stocks and small cap stocks.

In Europe the Eurostoxx Mid Index, has historically outperformed the broader Stoxx 600 Index, and in the last bull market started in 2009, the real gap in the performance between the two indexes, started in 2013, as we can see in the graph below where it is represented in the upper side the relative strength of the Eurostoxx Mid Index versus the Stoxx 600 Index, and in the lower side the historical performance of the two indexes.

…this market is like the old Barcelona playing tiki taka with me and my fellow value investors

According to the latest reports, US inflation rose, while real interest rates remained negative, therefore, analysts are expecting a boost in demand for gold. Do you share this point of view or not? Why?

I do share this point of view because there is a strong negative correlation between real interest rates and the gold price.

Some experts think that China and Russia both significantly increase gold reserves in order to lower US government’s control on the value of their assets. Analysts suggest that this may weaken the US Dollar and push gold prices higher. Are you of the same opinion or not? Why?

I do not think that it is a reasonable assumption, because the available data simply does not support this opinion. China, for instance, reported its figures on foreign exchange reserves for March, according to which the Chinese Central Bank did not buy any gold for the fifth consecutive month. In the meantime, Russia increased its gold reserves, though not by the same magnitude as in the recent years, with monthly buying volumes being lower than two or three years ago.