Expert opinion

A sunny sky, any clouds around?

The economic outlook is bright enough to warrant a pro risk investment stance. Our overweight equities/ underweight duration seems consistent with a firming of global growth and an unwinding of prior deflation fear.

What could derail the recent rally of risky assets ?

Europe Political Risk: A Le Pen victory in France cannot be ruled out even if odds are slim. It would undermine European political cohesion (weak as it is), and would impose a larger risk premium on euro-denominated assets. A Macron victory would signal diminishing political risk in Europe, as the French and German leadership would be committed to supporting the European Union and the single currency. We underweight French sovereign and financial assets in search for clarity.

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GADGETS: VR versus AR, headsets that will take you to other worlds

Concerts, museums, surgical theatres: all have in common one thing, the use or potential use of virtual or augmented reality. More and more companies in all fields are studying how to use this technology, with celebrities jumping on board like Buzz Aldrin, who created a version of himself in space to show everyone how to reach Mars.

Bands are using virtual reality to get in touch with their fans, who can now take part in concerts anywhere as long as both ends are equipped with the correct technology.

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Why should you look at Russell 2000 Index?

Some weeks ago (1), I wrote an article about a negated pattern of an “orthodox broadening formation” on the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

This kind of pattern is not so very common to find on price graphs; it occurs when a series of three or more price fluctuations widen out of size so that peaks and troughs can be connected with two diverging trendlines (2). Generally the pattern comprises three rallies, with each succeeding peak higher than its predecessor, and each peak separated by two bottoms, with the second bottom lower than the first one. Orthodox broadening formations are associated with market peaks. Several of these patterns, according to Edwards and Magee, appeared at the 1929 Tops of many of the active and popular stocks of that day (3). Perhaps we can best see what this formation is, if we examine the image below. I have numbered from 1 to 5 the significant turning points.

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Technical analysis : Gold remains near 1,225 level on Friday

On Friday morning the yellow metal’s price remained rather unchanged, as the bullion fluctuated just above the 1,225 mark. Previously, during Thursday’s trading session the bullion extended the gains, which it scored on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. However, at the 1,233.59 mark the bullion encountered the resistance of a medium term descending channel, which proved strong enough to cause a minor decline in the commodity price. It is most likely that the bullion will make another attempt to break higher, as on Friday morning the decline has stopped, and the yellow metal has begun to approach the weekly R1, which is located at the 1,228.89 level.

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