Expert opinion

A new presidential cycle just begun in the USA and the stock market has welcomed 2017 with a bullish note. The S&P500 rose about 7% in the first two months of the year, the month of March has started in a corrective mood and the market retreated a bit still leaving the progress around 5% year-to-date.

It was a hefty start, that could well lead to a seasonal top. At the moment, we see the recent high of March 1st, near 2’400, above 21’000 for the Dow Jones Industrial, as a strong resistance, but it is interesting to compare the bullish wave of these recent weeks with the recurring cyclical patterns. First, we note that a healthy February is not so common. February is used to be a sluggish month for Wall Street, even worse in the first year of the presidential cycle with an average return, for the 16 occurrences since 1953, of -1.83%. In figure 1 is shown the average historical yearly pattern of the S&P500 since 1952 compared with the average of returns in the first year of the presidential cycle. They are very similar, even if the first of the four years term tends to be a bit more volatile and less performing. Usually, February and August are the worst months followed by June and September.

R. Esposito, CEO of FinLantern, explains to Finanza Operativa his next initiatives, in particular the new "FinLantern Community".

Since the last Newsletter stock quotations have risen yet further with the DJIA hovering under the 21,000 mark with a P/E ratio of 21.3 while the S&P 500 is still around 2,370 with a P/E ratio of 26.5.The markets are waiting for the FOMC meeting of 15th March 2017 (the Ides of March, an ominous date) while the next rate rise of 25 bps is practically certain

During the early hours of Thursday’s trading session the yellow metal’s price slipped even further lower, as the price reached below the 1,205 level. However, the bullion managed to find support in a speculative and before the recent moves unconfirmed long term lower trend line of a large scale ascending channel pattern. Due to that reason traders should look at whether a proper rebound occurs, as from the upside there is a strong resistance cluster, which could keep the commodity price lower in the future sessions.

Liechtenstein will host today the Finance Forum where one of the topics covered will be Philanthropy. The University of Liechtenstein will be part of the conference, as explained by professor Francesco Schurr, Chair of Company, Foundation and Trust Law.

«Banks and finance institutes are facing far-reaching upheavals such as strict regulations or low interest rates etc. What conditions are needed for the financial centre of Liechtenstein to continue its excellent services? Who is going to be the future target group? The topics of this year’s event include a broad range and cover themes like the digitalization of the financial centre, philanthropy, investment decision, data security and data protection. Of central importance is the question, how to push the growth of the financial centre Liechtenstein. International experts will discuss those topics from different perspectives and will define common goals for national activities».

The Boards of Standard Life plc (“Standard Life”) and Aberdeen Asset Management PLC (“Aberdeen”) are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended all-share merger of Standard Life and Aberdeen, to be effected by means of a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement between Aberdeen and the Aberdeen Shareholders under Part 26 of the Companies Act 2006 (the “Merger”). The Combined Group will in due course be branded to incorporate the names of both Standard Life and Aberdeen.

Since early January, Oil has been consolidating at high levels and in a narrow range. The period follows the sharp rise in prices, which started at the end of November, following the Vienna OPEC meeting, when an agreement to cut production finally started to materialise. With this political uncertainty behind them, speculators have pushed net long positions to record highs, while, since year end, hedgers and commercial players have been selling forward to lock in these levels. It is this battle we are currently experiencing.

The yellow metal has suffered major losses and is still positioned to fall even further, as by the end of Thursday’s trading session a massive and strong support cluster was passed. During the early hours of Friday’s trading session the bullion attempted to break above the cluster near the 1,235 level, but it failed and began to decline. Due to that reason it can be assumed that the Bullion will continue lower, as the range down to the 1,219.20 level, where the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is located at, is free from any other support levels.