Expert opinion

It is a decade since the start of the financial crisis. What started in the US housing market later engulfed the global economy and is having an enduring legacy on the UK – perhaps most notably on savers.

MarketPlus will be a media partner to the event e-Commerce meets Fashion in the “Ticino Fashion Valley, which will be held in Lugano on March 13th. Carlo Terreni, co-founder and […]

Richard W. Schabacker, financial editor of Forbes Magazine with previous experiences at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Standard Statistic Company (today Standard & Poor’s), wrote three important books (1) on how financial market works. He described the first price models (patterns) that can be identified on charts, to better understand the sequence of underlying psychological relationships between buyers and sellers.

Hence is the psychological aspect that drives in many situations the movement of market prices. Professor Lo of MIT, is the author of a theory related to financial markets that combines the rational aspect with the psychological aspect (2).

“Buy low, sell high” is what investors would like to do, but many “Sell low, buy high”, which is what they should not do. This Newsletter recently recommended selling as opposed to buying. The last week has seen even higher highs in the US markets.

The Euro continued to book gains against the US Dollar during the early hours of Friday’s trading session, as the currency exchange rate attempted to break through the resistance put up by the 55-day SMA, which was located at 1.0593. The pair already attempted to move higher during Thursday’s trading. However, it failed to pass the SMA. Due to that and the fact that the weekly PP is located just above the SMA at 1.0604, it is most likely that the currency pair will fail once more and retreat lower by the end of Friday’s trading session.

The next meeting of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) will be on 21st to 23rd April 2017 in Washington, D.C. The US dollar is overvalued in relation to other currencies, and therefore it could be a good idea to sell US dollars just as this Newsletter has recommended selling US equities now since the prices are very high and a correction to the bull market is overdue. It is unlikely that this cycle will last to the end of 2017. One could then reenter the market after the correction.

The GBP/USD pair erased most of Friday’s losses yesterday, successfully climbing over the 1.2450 level, thus, breaching the immediate resistance area. Now the British currency is being supported by a strong demand area around the 1.24 major level, with the weekly PP just being a minor nuisance located at 1.2449. Technically, the Cable should remain above the 1.24 mark today and pave its way towards retaking the 1.25 handle. However, technical indicators are still unable to confirm the possibility of the positive outcome, leaving the door open for another leg down.

The Swiss Market Index, the most important basket of Swiss blue-chips, is often considered a value-investment, not only for the traditional role of Switzerland as a safe-haven but also for the predominance of defensive companies in its basket, some of which are among the largest companies by market capitalization the world.

Nevertheless, it is not so simple to link the aversion of investors to risk to the relative course of the Swiss stocks. When the investors look for safety, for example, the Swiss Franc is often the main beneficiary but a hard currency is not the best environment for global business and so is explained the relative weakness of the Swiss markets during the bearish trends of the euro against the Swiss franc.