Financial markets are reacting with a bit of confusion. Some are seeing the headline number and thinking a hike is on the cards while others are digging below the surface and concluding it might not be.
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Even though the European single currency edged higher against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday, it was unable to maintain trade above the 122.00 mark, with the resistance cluster there pushing the exchange rate down again. As a result, this cluster caused the EUR/JPY cross to make a U-turn and begin moving towards the 121.20 psychological support. Technical indicators, however, are unable to confirm the possibility of the negative outcome, as they keep giving bullish signals. In this case the 121.60 handle should be considered as a possible support, as it kept the Euro from sliding down for a whole week now, suggesting trade could close above this area.
“The most interesting part of Thursday’s events will be Mark Carney’s press conference. The Bank will probably revise up their forecasts for inflation and growth in the short term. So Mr Carney is bound to be asked why he’s not planning on raising interest rates in response. The answer will be that the central bank looks beyond this kind of inflation because it thinks it won’t last.
Whenever the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches a new milestone the investors are used to cheer. It happened last week, when the most famous of the stock indexes broke the 20’000 mark, after flirting with this significant level for about two months. Is this new record so important for the market? To be honest, it looks difficult to find a rational reason for all this excitement, 20’000 is just a number, as they were all the round numbers that the index had reached in the past years. Psychology is important at this matter: a close above 20’000 feeds optimism and confidence, especially among retail investors, and translates into new purchases.
After a lengthy stay in the land of Oz down under, where one has a very different point of view, a return to a new situation that is still very much the old situation is enlightening.
