Despite some concerns around the start of last year, and the political shocks that unfolded over the course of the past 12 months, 2016 actually turned out to be quite a good year for investors, with most asset classes rising in value. But what can we expect over 2017, and how should investors approach the coming year? In this short outlook document we outline what we expect over the year ahead and set out what we believe could be the best-performing asset classes in each of our main scenarios.
In spite of a strong UK GDP reading, the GBP/USD currency pair was unable to pierce the immediate resistance cluster, resulting in a small bearish correction, with a slip below 1.26 again. The same cluster keeps providing strong resistance today around 1.2670, implying that the Pound is to weaken against the US Dollar for the second day. The nearest demand area rests around 1.2515, which could limit possible losses, while another strong group supports is located at 1.2430, namely the monthly PP and the 55-day SMA. However, technical indicators in the daily timeframe suggest the Cable is to inch higher; nevertheless, the immediate resistance is expected to remain intact.
President Trump argues that too many US workers have lost their jobs to foreign peers as companies have offshored manufacturing. US companies need to bring those jobs back and, in doing so, restore America’s industrial greatness. His diagnosis isn’t altogether wrong: fewer companies manufacture cars, for instance, in the US than was previously the case. But this thesis is too simplistic.
Looking in the new 2017 Gold Outlook Report published by the World Gold Council, we read that in 2016 investors around the world returned in large numbers to the gold market, as a combination of macroeconomic drivers and pent up demand kept interest in gold high. But in the new year, there are some concerns that US dollar strength may limit gold’s appeal. The report provides some research information that lead to think that, on the contrary, not only will gold remain highly relevant as a strategic portfolio component, but also six major trends will support demand for gold throughout 2017 (1).
The GBP/USD currency pair confirmed yesterday’s scenario, having climbed back above the 1.23 major level and even completely ignoring the immediate resistance at 1.2324. Friday brings a lot of uncertainty, as volatility direction is likely to be caused by Trump’s speech during his inauguration later today. From a technical perspective we should see more upside movement, despite a group of strong resistances located just beyond the 1.24 handle. On the other hand, the US Dollar could receive a solid boost, with the Cable seen dropping as low as 1.21 in the worst case scenario.
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