Expert opinion

Goodbye Deflation

The big event of November was, of course, the election of Donald Trump in the United States. The first thing to keep in mind is the uncertainty surrounding his plans, especially his economic programme. Second, there can be a wide gap between what a candidate says and what he does, once in office. That said, Trump’s statements do provide us with a general outline of at least three complementary scenarios.

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Opportunities in high yield: What makes the global high-yield asset class an attractive longterm investment?

Since 1987, the high yield sector has generally produced healthy risk-adjusted returns, striking a good balance between return and risk. With almost 30 years of proof of concept, the US high yield sector (as represented by the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Constrained Index) has provided over 80% of the upside and less than 60% of the downside when compared to equities (as represented by the S&P 500 Index).B As such, high yield remains a strong diversifier within an investor’s portfolio for those who can tolerate the risk. When we consider the expanded opportunity set in the global high-yield market, we think an investor can gain considerable advantages.

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What can we expect from FED in 2017?

The Fed has finally delivered a second rate hike a year after the last one in this cycle.

“What’s more interesting is their guidance on where interest rates might go from here. This time last year the Fed turned out to be wildly off mark in what they were predicting. But this year there are reasons for thinking the Fed’s guidance is more realistic. The economy is in a more advanced stage of recovery and market pricing reflects this. We can expect rates to slowly climb through next year and beyond.”

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Technical analysis : USD/JPY trades in murky waters

The USD/JPY currency pair remained relatively unchanged on Tuesday, managing to retain its position above the 115.00 mark. From the technical point of view, the Buck is likely to strengthen against the Japanese Yen today, rebounding from the four-week up-trend and putting the immediate resistance area circa 116.30 to the test. On the other hand, with fundamental events being the main drivers today, the outcome can be less pleasant for the American Dollar. There are risks involved, which can cause the given pair drop even below 113.00, completely ignoring the two closest demand areas.

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