Expert opinion

Activity levels across Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted sharply in April. Japanese manufacturing activity contracted this month at the fastest in more than three years and output fell the most in two years, after earthquakes halted production in the southern manufacturing hub of Kumamoto. The preliminary Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell 1.1 points to a seasonally adjusted 48.0 in April from a final 49.1 in March. The data was way down the expected 49.6 figure. The PMI remained below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the second consecutive month and showed activity contracted the most since January 2013. Moreover, the output component of the PMI index also fell to 47.9 from 49.8 in the previous month to show the fastest contraction since April 2014. The sharp drop in total new work was underpinned by the fastest fall in international demand since December 2012, and following the two earthquakes in Kumamoto, the outlook of the goods-producing sector now looks especially uncertain.

The jobless total in the UK increased for the first time in almost a year. The UK unemployment rose by 21,000 to 1.7 million between December and February, and that was the first increase since the May-July period of the last year, the Office for National Statistics reported. The number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits increased by 6,700 in March to 732,100, the first monthly rise since last August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at anticipated 5.1%, which is still down by 0.5% on a year ago and the lowest since 2005.

Switzerland published its March Trade Balance this morning and this one was catastrophic. The figure came out at CHF 2.16bn vs CHF 4.02bn previously. Switzerland did not publish such a low figure since February 2015, so more than a year.

The US is caught up in the classic tragic cycle and is heading for a fall. The three parts of the cycle are overweening pride (hybris), which begets surfeit (ate), which is followed by retribution (nemesis). The Doom and Gloom Club has been predicting that the economic downfall of the American economy is nigh for some time, but the tone has become shriller and shriller recently.

Precious metals are again attracting a lot of attention with Gold and Silver futures long positioning reaching the highest level since 2013 according to CFTC data. Long-term investors are also starting to jump in, on fear of missing out according to UBS research. China started a yuan-denominated gold fix to compete with London Bullion fixing, yet the impact gold price remains to be evaluated.

US housing starts declined more than expected in March, while permits for future home construction slipped to a one-year low, indicating some cooling in the housing market in line with signs of a steep slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter. Housing starts plunged 8.8% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.089 million in March, according to the Commerce Department. At the same time, new applications for building permits, a bellwether for forthcoming construction, dropped 7.7% to 1.086 million, from a revised February rate of 1.177 million. Demand for housing has been robust over the past year, with home prices up in many markets amid a shortage of inventory. Buyers could turn to new homes, which only account for about 10% of the overall housing market, as the supply of existing homes declines.

New York Fed President William Dudley said US economic environment is "mostly favourable", but the US central bank remains cautious in hiking interest rates as threats loom. Dudley reiterated he was confident that too-low inflation would climb to a 2% target over the next few years, with "economic conditions have finally warranted the start of U.S. monetary policy normalization." The policy maker repeated his view that the Fed should take a gradual and cautious approach to monetary policy tightening amid significant uncertainties and headwinds to growth stemming from the financial crisis, which have not fully abated.

US industrial production declined more than expected in March as output dropped broadly, the latest sign that economic growth faltered in the first quarter. Industrial output fell 0.6% last month following a downwardly revised 0.6% decrease in February, according to the Federal Reserve. Industrial production slipped at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter. The report joined data on retail sales, business spending, trade and wholesale inventories in indicating that economic growth slowed at the turn of the year. Growth estimates for the first quarter are as low as a 0.2% annualized rate. The world’s number one economy grew at a 1.4% rate in the fourth quarter. However, given a strong labour market, the slowdown in growth is likely to be temporary.