Forex

An interview with Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of Currency Strategy at Commerzbank, on Swiss Franc

The Greenback continued on its descending route with the USDJPY breaching well below 110 and EURUSD hitting a new high since October 2015 at 1.1454. The Fed minutes largely confirmed that there will not be a rate rise in April, and little prospect for a hike in June.

European stocks continued to be mixed fluctuating between gains and looses. Meanwhile, European leaders had a meeting in Brussels on Friday in an attempt to hammer out a deal with Turkey that would
relocate thousands of migrants from Greece to Turkey. In return, Turkish citizens would be granted the ability to travel within the European Union without visas.

Gold, ready to bounce back • Gold is still located in an uptrend channel. Strong hourly resistance is given at 1284 (11/03/2016 high) while closer hourly supports is located at […]

Both equity markets and the euro are lower on Tuesday after what appears to be a coordinated terrorist attack in Brussels. Belgium is now on its highest terror alert after […]

The focus today is first on the US CPI release and then the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later. The market is looking for a core CPI reading of +2.2%, unchanged from the January reading. The post-global financial crisis high for a single month was 2.3% back in April, 2012.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand took the market by surprise and cut its official cash rate by 25bps to 2.25%. Governor Wheeler argued that the deteriorating outlook for global growth, and more specifically the uncertainty surrounding China’s economic prospect, justifies this surprise easing move from the central bank.

Swiss unemployment fell in February to 3.7% from 3.8% in January. Although there is a seasonal factor to take into consideration, hiring generally only really starts to pick up in the month of March. CPI figures in February also bettered expectations with prices rising 0.2% compared to a drop of -0.4% in January and -0.1% expected. These, are first signs of improvements after a very difficult year in 2015. It will be interesting to see whether the Swiss economy can keep up the momentum over the coming months.