Some economists expect the Fed to resume its plan of increasing key interest rates at a gradual pace if the US economy outperforms itself this year. Do you share this point of view?

I do not think the economy really needs to outperform to make the Federal Reserve raise rates. If the economy evolves as expected, the Fed will be hiking interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee feels that the economy is performing well and that monetary policy needs to be in a normal position. Currently, monetary policy in the US is accommodative, but with the economy close to normal, the FOMC believes that policy should be close to normal too.

During Obama’s presidency, the US energy industry was hit strongly by environmental protection measures. Now, oil and gas industry is expected to surge forward. Do you share this point of view or not? In your opinion, will Trump’s regulations help the US become more energy independent?

At the moment, it is hard to say whether the energy industry is really going to surge forward thanks to Trump’s regulations. Still, with relatively low oil prices, the industry is not going to receive more money regardless of any regulations the President might implement. What I mean is that the government can still make these rules easier for the companies, but it will not change the investment significantly. Overall, the new regulations implementation might be positive, but it is still not a game changer. Furthermore, I suppose that there is no need for the President to relax the environmental regulations because the industry is already capable of meeting higher environmental standards.

According to the latest reports, US inflation rose, while real interest rates remained negative, therefore, analysts are expecting a boost in demand for gold. Do you share this point of view or not? Why?

I do share this point of view because there is a strong negative correlation between real interest rates and the gold price.

Some experts think that China and Russia both significantly increase gold reserves in order to lower US government’s control on the value of their assets. Analysts suggest that this may weaken the US Dollar and push gold prices higher. Are you of the same opinion or not? Why?

I do not think that it is a reasonable assumption, because the available data simply does not support this opinion. China, for instance, reported its figures on foreign exchange reserves for March, according to which the Chinese Central Bank did not buy any gold for the fifth consecutive month. In the meantime, Russia increased its gold reserves, though not by the same magnitude as in the recent years, with monthly buying volumes being lower than two or three years ago.

The German Business Climate Index released on March 27 hit the record high since mid-2011. Does that mean that German companies are, in general, indifferent to the existing political uncertainties, such as the US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policy, the upcoming elections in Germany and France and hot disputes about the two-speed Europe idea?

I would not say that they are completely indifferent. The Business Climate Index did show an initial reaction to the Brexit referendum decision back in the middle of 2016; however, despite the political uncertainties, the overall global demand picture has actually brightened up over the last six to nine months. Indeed, this is something the German economy benefits very much from due to the importance of its export industry. And the fact that we have seen the Euro weakening over the last year or so helped additionally. This is the result of the US reserves tightening up, while the ECB is not prepared to change its monetary policy yet.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased more than expected last week, hitting the lowest level over the past five weeks, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported initial jobless claims fell 25,000 to a total of 234,000 in the week ended April 1, down from the preceding week’s upwardly revised reading of 259,000. This was the biggest weekly decline since April 2015. Meanwhile, market analysts expected unemployment claims to plunge only 251,000 during the reported week. The number of job-seeking persons decreased from 2,052,000 to 2,028,000, thus, affecting the moving average, which hit its lowest level since June 2000. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate of 1.5% remained unchanged from last week. In general, the fact that jobless claims have been fluctuating around 260,000 for more than two years, indicating that the US has a healthy labour market. In addition, the largest spike in unemployment claims was recorded in New York, Texas, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and California, while the largest drop in unemployment happened in Ohio, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky.

Data released on Thursday revealed that the Swiss KOF leading indicator surged slightly over the month of March, reconfirming the strong February data and suggesting a better-than-expected growth of the country’s economy. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute reported the KOF index added 0.7 points last month and held strongly above its long-term average, jumping to 107.6 from a downwardly revised reading of 106.9 registered in the preceding month. The upmove was mainly driven by the positive trend established in the construction sector coupled with favourable signals from the financial sector and domestic private consumption.

The yellow metal traders are expecting the fundamentally important vote on US healthcare, which will reveal, whether Donald Trump can get legislation passed. Due to that reason the bullion bounced around the 1,245 mark on Friday morning. From a technical perspective the commodity price is squeezed in between the weekly R1 at 1,242.38 and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,248.96, which is enforced by the long term downward trend line at 1,250.12. Due to this trend line it can be assumed that the legislative bill will not be passed. However, it might as well be easily broken, and market participants should stay vigilant.

During the first half of Tuesday’s trading session the New Zealand Dollar remained near the previous closing price of 0.7050 against the US Dollar. The currency exchange rate was prepped up by the 20-day SMA, which was located at the 0.7049 level and the lower trend line of a rather week medium term ascending channel pattern at the 0.7035 level. It is highly possible that the currency exchange rate will surge by the end of the day’s trading, as the closest resistance level is located at 0.7082, where the weekly R1 is located at. However, a break of the resistance is unlikely, as the weekly R1 is strengthened by the monthly S1 at the 0.7090 level.