British consumer prices dropped unexpectedly last month, despite the steep fall in the value of the British Pound after the Brexit vote, official data showed on Tuesday. According to the Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Price Index advanced 0.9% year-over-year in October, compared to the preceding month’s 1.0% rise. That was below the 1.1% market forecast, who suggested that the weak Sterling would lift inflation last month. Nevertheless, the ONS said factory gate prices increased 2.1%, faster than expected and the largest increase since April 2012.
The US Dollar was almost frozen against all other currencies, including the Canadian Dollar, as the currency exchange rate was only four pips higher than the opening price by mid-Tuesday. Although, the pair experienced some volatility, it does not even matter, if the US presidential elections are being taken into account. The whole basis and policy of the largest economy in the world is about to be changed or enforced even further by the results of the election, which will come in the upcoming hours. If Clinton wins, the Greenback will surge, and vice versa in case of a Trump victory.
The yellow metal was in a full on retreat on Friday morning, as it had erased all of Thursday’s gains. However, the situation seems only temporary, as the metal is still set to surge, as it is indicated by various factors. First of all, the metal has reached the support provided by the weekly R2 at 1,296.73. Secondly, trader set up orders are mostly long. Third is the fact that daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge. Last but not least, the US election is not over and the drama will continue.
By mid-Thursday the USD/CAD currency exchange rate had touched the 1.3395 level and retreated from it. Although the pair retreated from the 1.3395 level, there are no notable resistance levels at that point, as even the upper Bollinger band was located at 1.3402 on Thursday. It is most likely that the exchange rate is affected by some sort of short term resistance, which has propelled the rate lower for now. In the meantime, on the daily chart the pair faces no resistance up to the level of 1.3463, where the weekly R1 is located at. The only exception being the mentioned Bollinger band.
The bullion retreated back to near 1,260 levels on Friday morning, as the metal failed to break through the resistance cluster, which it faced on Thursday. Although, the outlook looked bright for the yellow metal on Thursday morning, the metal failed to break through the weekly R2 and monthly S2 near 1,273. Afterwards, even the 200-day SMA failed to support the bullion, which fell and continued the fall on Friday morning to reach the support provided by the weekly R1 at 1,261.62. However, it is still possible at large that the metal will continue to fall during the rest of the day.
The common European currency traded below the 1.1050 level against the Greenback on Wednesday, as it had found resistance in the second weekly support level at 1.1043. Previously, as the currency exchange rate slowly moved through the first weekly and monthly support at 1.1121 and 1.1133, it plummeted down to the 1.1043, as soon as the before mentioned support levels were passed. It is most likely that the currency pair will move lower to mark new low levels, as it nears the Brexit low level.
Some hawkish comments from the Fed caused the Greenback to add more than 120 pips against the Yen yesterday, nearly managing to retake the 103.00 mark. Even though technical indicators are no longer giving bearish signals, a possibility of bears taking over still exists. Nonetheless, a tough support cluster around the 102.00 major level is more than capable of handling any bearish development, while gains could potentially extend towards 103.75, where the monthly R1 coincides with the weekly R3 and the 100-day SMA. Moreover, the 104.00 level also represents significant psychological resistance, which remained intact for more than two months now.
UK manufacturing activity rose to its highest in more than two years, as the level new export orders surged on the weaker British Pound, a private survey revealed on Monday. According to Markit/CIPS, the Purchasing Managers’ Index advanced to 55.4 in September, its highest level since June 2014, compared to the preceding month’s 53.4 points, while market analysts anticipated a slight deceleration to 52.1 in the reported period. Back in July, the PMI dropped to 48.2 points amid Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
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