With an increase of more than 25% since the beginning of the year, gold has continued to climb and will probably not stop there.

Warrants have gained in popularity over the past decade, but are more and more challenged by CFDs and the growing offer in Switzerland. Both products offer leverage and the possibility to profit from rising and falling markets, yet they are inherently different. So what really sets them apart? And most importantly, which is best for you?

The markets have been all over the place since the Brexit vote. However, this rases opportunities on the currency market, even in a context of high volatility. We could observe a US dollar acting as a safe haven in the wake of the vote, and still resilient during the rising markets that followed.

Credit Suisse posted a net profit of 170 million SFr, compared to 1.05 Billion in the same quarter last year. Nevertheless, it is better than the analyst consensus who expected a deepening of the yearly losses.

The good:

Costs were 8% below consensus. One of Thiam’s priority is to make the bank run more efficiently, and this is the first time we witness that his strategy is finally bearing fruit. The company is on track to meet its cost cutting target for the year of 1.7 billion francs. Wealth management, the other priority, also managed to continue attracting funds with Net New Assets up 5.4 Billion francs, despite the geo-political challenges in Europe. This is clearly helped by Credit Suisse’s global footprint.

What will happen next is very difficult to assess, and this lack of visibility is the very reason why markets should remain very volatile and unpredictable over the months to come.
Politics will outshine market fundamentals, where the UK and the EU will enter into long and complex negotiations.

The markets had been anticipating a “remain” victory and the surprise effect should even amplify the impact on financial markets. The immediate effect should be extreme volatility with market dislocations due to margin call, panic selling and the search for safe haven.
The UK are to enter into a two year procedure with the EU, to negotiate the exit terms. The EU will probably not make it easy in order to discourage other leavers, which promise to keep uncertainty and volatility fairly elevated at least for the next months.

Nothing surprising came out of this SNB meeting. The increase in the oil price is the main explanation of the upward revision of the inflation outlook. However, the effects of oil are short-termed. In a couple of months, this should disappear. The SNB sounds a bit too optimistic, in our view, on the US and European outlook, which will be also key to its monetary policy. Things might be slower than what the SNB displays.

Similarly to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, markets are starting to get nervous two weeks from the Brexit vote. A single poll by an independent newspaper showing 55% in favour of Brexit, was enough to spur doubt among investors. The volatility on European markets spiked up and oil fell 3% last Friday. The EUR/CHF is also particularly affected with 1 month implied volatility reaching the highest level since the summer of last year.