Since Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States, research and views have been very divided on emerging markets. And, in general, negative views have carried the day. On the one hand, many agreed that the macroeconomic situation and microeconomic fundamentals were in the process of improving and that 2017 would hold some positive surprises in store. On the other hand, the utmost caution was in order, given the threats to launch trade “reprisals” against a number of emerging economies. All in all, having fallen out of grace in late 2016 and early 2017, emerging equities and debt have been among the best performers in their respective asset classes, with gains of 8.8% and 1.75% respectively, as of 15 March and in euros. Where does the consensus stand now?

The economic outlook is bright enough to warrant a pro risk investment stance. Our overweight equities/ underweight duration seems consistent with a firming of global growth and an unwinding of prior deflation fear.

What could derail the recent rally of risky assets ?

Europe Political Risk: A Le Pen victory in France cannot be ruled out even if odds are slim. It would undermine European political cohesion (weak as it is), and would impose a larger risk premium on euro-denominated assets. A Macron victory would signal diminishing political risk in Europe, as the French and German leadership would be committed to supporting the European Union and the single currency. We underweight French sovereign and financial assets in search for clarity.

Despite some concerns around the start of last year, and the political shocks that unfolded over the course of the past 12 months, 2016 actually turned out to be quite a good year for investors, with most asset classes rising in value. But what can we expect over 2017, and how should investors approach the coming year? In this short outlook document we outline what we expect over the year ahead and set out what we believe could be the best-performing asset classes in each of our main scenarios.

Don’t forget equities are a real asset class, and ultimately they are likely to benefit from a reflation regime

The big event of November was, of course, the election of Donald Trump in the United States. The first thing to keep in mind is the uncertainty surrounding his plans, especially his economic programme. Second, there can be a wide gap between what a candidate says and what he does, once in office. That said, Trump’s statements do provide us with a general outline of at least three complementary scenarios.

Donald Trump is the winner of the US presidential election, with a much greater margin than any poll had suggested. In addition, both houses of Congress fell to the Republican party, giving him the maximum possible support in office. Markets are shocked and eager to learn what of his radical agenda will be implemented, when and how.

In an environment of low global growth and slight deflation, high yield corporate bonds continue to offer attractive return prospects as long the current low default rate remains. Moreover, the distortions prompted by the ECB’s asset purchasing programme are causing a crowding out effect and accentuating a steeper credit curve. Time is notably an ally in this configuration, as it speeds up a positive carry!

In September, the main focus was once again the central banks, the ECB first of all, then the Bank of Japan and the Fed. Expectations were high in all three cases. To announce additional monetary easing in the first two, and guidance on anticipations and credibility in the third. The first two disappointed the market, announcing measures that fell well short of investor anticipations. Already in July, the BoJ opted to keep things as they stood even though a large proportion of investors expected to see further monetary easing. The Fed, for its part, struggled to overcome internal divisions and look beyond a month-by-month horizon, at the risk of making mistakes in its growth projections and damaging its credibility.