The price of gold is getting close to the 1300 dollars mark per one ounce, after a rally that brought it almost 12% higher since the beginning of 2017.

Most of the climb of the precious metal is attributed to its role of safe haven, especially after the rise of political tensions in Syria and more recently over North Korea, but also a gradual deterioration of the U.S. dollar value, which trends are usually inverse to those of gold, contributed to this rally. In figure 1, where the Dollar Index is compared to gold, it looks clear that since the greenback has begun to depreciate from the 14 years high that had reached at the end of 2016, the price of gold has inverted the down-trend that had subdued it for most of the second half of last year.

When we want to invest in stock indices, sometimes we are very focused on large, medium or small capitalization indices. Sometimes we try to understand if it is better to invest in value stocks rather than growth stocks, and sometimes we follow only the sector indices that fundamentals indicate us more attractive for that period. But in Europe there is an index representing one of the Super Sectors of the Stoxx 600, which has always performed in an excellent way, and in the last twenty years has beaten the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600 (see the graph below). This index is the Stoxx Europe 600 Personal & Household Goods Index.

The two big banks are yet again trading neck to neck. Indeed, both their share prices have been oscillating slightly below the CHF 16 mark for more than two months (between 15 and 16 for UBS and 14 and 16 for Crédit Suisse). Crédit Suisse lags a bit following the sharp fall it saw in early 2016, yet its higher beta of 1.57 (1.07 for UBS) has enabled it to catch up most of this underperformance. We expect more ring-fencing between the two over the next few months.

Stocks have rallied about 15% at Wall Street since the presidential election of the last November. The Standard & Poor’s 500 hit the 2400 mark at the beginning of March, after four month featured by extremely low volatility, as shown by the VIX index (see Figure 1), a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options, published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Such measure is colloquially defined as the fear index since, generally, the VIX has an inverse relationship to the stock market. It tends to increase when stocks decline and vice-versa. A rising stock market is considered as less risky and here is why, during these four months of almost unchanged uptrend, the VIX stood at historically low levels. Now, at the end of March, the VIX is testing its 200 days moving average, after a long accumulation on the historical lows and it is trying to get through the 13 points mark that has been intact since January.

Some weeks ago (1), I wrote an article about a negated pattern of an “orthodox broadening formation” on the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

This kind of pattern is not so very common to find on price graphs; it occurs when a series of three or more price fluctuations widen out of size so that peaks and troughs can be connected with two diverging trendlines (2). Generally the pattern comprises three rallies, with each succeeding peak higher than its predecessor, and each peak separated by two bottoms, with the second bottom lower than the first one. Orthodox broadening formations are associated with market peaks. Several of these patterns, according to Edwards and Magee, appeared at the 1929 Tops of many of the active and popular stocks of that day (3). Perhaps we can best see what this formation is, if we examine the image below. I have numbered from 1 to 5 the significant turning points.

A new presidential cycle just begun in the USA and the stock market has welcomed 2017 with a bullish note. The S&P500 rose about 7% in the first two months of the year, the month of March has started in a corrective mood and the market retreated a bit still leaving the progress around 5% year-to-date.

It was a hefty start, that could well lead to a seasonal top. At the moment, we see the recent high of March 1st, near 2’400, above 21’000 for the Dow Jones Industrial, as a strong resistance, but it is interesting to compare the bullish wave of these recent weeks with the recurring cyclical patterns. First, we note that a healthy February is not so common. February is used to be a sluggish month for Wall Street, even worse in the first year of the presidential cycle with an average return, for the 16 occurrences since 1953, of -1.83%. In figure 1 is shown the average historical yearly pattern of the S&P500 since 1952 compared with the average of returns in the first year of the presidential cycle. They are very similar, even if the first of the four years term tends to be a bit more volatile and less performing. Usually, February and August are the worst months followed by June and September.

Since early January, Oil has been consolidating at high levels and in a narrow range. The period follows the sharp rise in prices, which started at the end of November, following the Vienna OPEC meeting, when an agreement to cut production finally started to materialise. With this political uncertainty behind them, speculators have pushed net long positions to record highs, while, since year end, hedgers and commercial players have been selling forward to lock in these levels. It is this battle we are currently experiencing.

Richard W. Schabacker, financial editor of Forbes Magazine with previous experiences at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Standard Statistic Company (today Standard & Poor’s), wrote three important books (1) on how financial market works. He described the first price models (patterns) that can be identified on charts, to better understand the sequence of underlying psychological relationships between buyers and sellers.

Hence is the psychological aspect that drives in many situations the movement of market prices. Professor Lo of MIT, is the author of a theory related to financial markets that combines the rational aspect with the psychological aspect (2).