Mario Valentino Guffanti, (Vice President – SAMT), CFTe (Certified Financial Technician) is a financial advisor and researcher. Vice-president for the Swiss Italian Chapter of SAMT, Swiss Association of Market Technicians, supervising editor of the technical journal. Among his interests, financial coaching through NLP techniques (Neuro-linguistic programming). Teacher in technical analysis, of which he is author of several articles and conference speaker.
The Swiss Market Index, the most important basket of Swiss blue-chips, is often considered a value-investment, not only for the traditional role of Switzerland as a safe-haven but also for the predominance of defensive companies in its basket, some of which are among the largest companies by market capitalization the world.
Nevertheless, it is not so simple to link the aversion of investors to risk to the relative course of the Swiss stocks. When the investors look for safety, for example, the Swiss Franc is often the main beneficiary but a hard currency is not the best environment for global business and so is explained the relative weakness of the Swiss markets during the bearish trends of the euro against the Swiss franc.
The first weeks of Mr Trump being in power have been disruptive, the least to say. Concomitantly, reflation trades, which we were early proponents of since Spring last year, may be getting overextended. We believe it may be time to consider Defensive and Growth stocks again.
Alan Turing was a mathematician who lived in the twentieth century and which is considered the father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence. In 1950 he wrote an article in Mind (1) in which he formulated the basics of his test, a criterion for deciding whether a machine is able to think or not. A computer can mimic human thought and deceive a person?
Whenever the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches a new milestone the investors are used to cheer. It happened last week, when the most famous of the stock indexes broke the 20’000 mark, after flirting with this significant level for about two months. Is this new record so important for the market? To be honest, it looks difficult to find a rational reason for all this excitement, 20’000 is just a number, as they were all the round numbers that the index had reached in the past years. Psychology is important at this matter: a close above 20’000 feeds optimism and confidence, especially among retail investors, and translates into new purchases.
Looking in the new 2017 Gold Outlook Report published by the World Gold Council, we read that in 2016 investors around the world returned in large numbers to the gold market, as a combination of macroeconomic drivers and pent up demand kept interest in gold high. But in the new year, there are some concerns that US dollar strength may limit gold’s appeal. The report provides some research information that lead to think that, on the contrary, not only will gold remain highly relevant as a strategic portfolio component, but also six major trends will support demand for gold throughout 2017 (1).
The European banks, which stocks are represented by the index Stoxx Europe 600 Banks, one of the 19 supersectors of the Stoxx family, had sharply underperformed the market until July 2016.
The course of the banking sector had reversed in August when the index started to climb and its weakness turned into strength. The most convincing signal at this matter occurred the last October, when it broke on the upside moving average at 200 days, just one month after the historical down-trending line has been interrupted. In just six months, 50% of the down-move 2015/2016 had been recovered, at the beginning of 2017 the index of the European Banks had risen 50% from the lows.
Stoxx 600 index had in the first two months of 2015 an incredible performance of about 25%, resulting the best equity index where to invest. But unluckily, in the month of April, the situation changed when the Index arrived at the 400 price level zone, a point where we had in the past, in 2000 and 2007, the beginning of two bear markets.
But this time, after the third historical top, prices created a double bottom at 300. Then in 2016 we had a trending range between 300 and 350 that was broken at the beginning of December.
Health-care stocks are one of the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 so far this year, with shares down -1,87% compared with the broader index’s +13,18% gain as investors fretted about everything from Obamacare to drug prices.
Several investors and analysts said they expect a clearer view of the political outlook for insurers and drug companies after the presidential election. Both Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton have criticized drug prices and want to make adjustments to the health-care system.
The same fate has been shared by the European equity market, where the Stoxx 600 Healt Care Supersector Index had a decrease of -10,89% while the main Stoxx 600 Index closed with a loss of -1,59%.
The Swiss Association of Market Technicians (SAMT) is a non-profit organization of market analysis professionals founded in 1987 in Switzerland and member of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).
SAMT encourages the development of Technical Analysis and the education of the financial community in the uses and applications of technical research and its value in the formulation of investment and trading decisions.
Technical Analysis is the study of prices and markets. It examines price behavior on an empirical, quantitative and statistical basis. It extends to the study of all published information on price trends, volatility, momentum, cycles and the interrelationship of prices, volume, breadth, sentiment and liquidity. A comprehensive understanding of Technical Analysis requires a knowledge of statistics and pattern recognition, quantitative techniques, algorithmic trading systems, academic studies related to testing procedures and objectives, behavioural finance, investment psychology and a familiarity with financial history and cycles.
Whether you are a professional or novice investor, you will find a wealth of valuable information within our activities to assist you in optimizing your investments.
For qualified investors / professional clients only
In order to proceed, you must confirm that you are a qualified investor based in Switzerland
The information contained in this section have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but is not guaranteed as being accurate, nor is it a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the document.
Before investing in a product please read the latest prospectus carefully and thoroughly and note that funds mentioned herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors The information mentioned herein is not intended to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and costs charged when subscribing to and redeeming units. Commissions and costs have a negative impact on performance. If the currency of a financial product or financial service is different from your reference currency, the return can increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. This information pays no regard to the specific or future investment objectives, financial or tax situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. The details and opinions contained in this document are provided without any guarantee or warranty and are for the recipient's personal use and information purposes only