The Significance of the Dollar Breakout
The dollar broke out to the upside. The climb of the greenback, that had started immediately after the Trump’s victory early last month, has now reached important historic levels.
Mario Valentino Guffanti, (Vice President – SAMT), CFTe (Certified Financial Technician) is a financial advisor and researcher. Vice-president for the Swiss Italian Chapter of SAMT, Swiss Association of Market Technicians, supervising editor of the technical journal. Among his interests, financial coaching through NLP techniques (Neuro-linguistic programming). Teacher in technical analysis, of which he is author of several articles and conference speaker.
E-mail: mario.guffanti@samt-org.ch
The dollar broke out to the upside. The climb of the greenback, that had started immediately after the Trump’s victory early last month, has now reached important historic levels.
The sharp rally that has started at the beginning of November in the equity markets is still running even if a bit tired after six weeks. Not all the sectors performed the same, this is normal, but the differences in this bullish wave have been particularly strong.
“Robots for economic growth, improved quality of life and empowerment of people”: this is the statement that opens the 2016 report titled: “A Roadmap for US Robotics – From Internet to Robotics”
They call it the Trump effect, the sharp and mostly unexpected rebound that, from the lows of early November, gave a boost to the equity markets worldwide. Not all the markets reacted the same and the swings were also influenced by volatile currencies. Just think at the big correction of the Japanese yen that dropped more than 10% against the Greenback in a few days.
The rise in the U.S. interest rates is a major concern for the financial community. The leading topic is structural: return of inflation and a Central Bank far less dovish than before. Furthermore, the Trump election and his proposals to cut taxes and boost spending via tax credits on infrastructure has fuelled strong reactions in the bond market.
The price of gold was expected to benefit from the surprise Trump win, and it did immediately after, with a jump towards the September high near 1340 dollars per ounce. The rally lasted just three hours, then the course reversed and the former downtrend resumed with a sharp fall below the 1250 mark.
Why, then, the sentiment that had pushed higher what is considered as a safe haven, turned to bearish so fast? The projected investments in infrastructure promised by Trump, sparked purchases of industrial metals, bonds yield went up, and so the dollar, not a friendly environment for gold.
Technology is increasingly dominating every sector of the economy. There are many published studies about the importance of technology for the next years. Accenture Technology R&D published this year a report where it is highlighted that according to their global technology survey of more than 3.100 IT and business executives, 86 percent of the executives anticipate that the pace of technology change will increase rapidly or at an unprecedented rate in their industry over the next three years
October is over and the next two months will mark the conclusion of this election year but, above all, the end of one of the nastiest presidential campaigns in the U.S. history. A glance at the statistics reveals that the election year is usually favorable to Wall Street, even if not an easy journey most of the times.
The Swiss Association of Market Technicians (SAMT) is a non-profit organization of market analysis professionals founded in 1987 in Switzerland and member of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).
SAMT encourages the development of Technical Analysis and the education of the financial community in the uses and applications of technical research and its value in the formulation of investment and trading decisions.
Technical Analysis is the study of prices and markets. It examines price behavior on an empirical, quantitative and statistical basis. It extends to the study of all published information on price trends, volatility, momentum, cycles and the interrelationship of prices, volume, breadth, sentiment and liquidity. A comprehensive understanding of Technical Analysis requires a knowledge of statistics and pattern recognition, quantitative techniques, algorithmic trading systems, academic studies related to testing procedures and objectives, behavioural finance, investment psychology and a familiarity with financial history and cycles.
Whether you are a professional or novice investor, you will find a wealth of valuable information within our activities to assist you in optimizing your investments.
In order to proceed, you must confirm that you are a qualified investor based in Switzerland
The information contained in this section have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but is not guaranteed as being accurate, nor is it a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the document.
Before investing in a product please read the latest prospectus carefully and thoroughly and note that funds mentioned herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors The information mentioned herein is not intended to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and costs charged when subscribing to and redeeming units. Commissions and costs have a negative impact on performance. If the currency of a financial product or financial service is different from your reference currency, the return can increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. This information pays no regard to the specific or future investment objectives, financial or tax situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. The details and opinions contained in this document are provided without any guarantee or warranty and are for the recipient's personal use and information purposes only