ECB, first meeting after Brexit

Today the ECB board should not disclose specific news, first meteting after Brexit. Analysts do not expect it new monetary stimulus, especially after not even the Bank of England cut rates, postponing the loosening of its monetary policy probably in August. The press conference of the Governor Mario Draghi will be important, however, because his words will express the intentions for September, when it is expected the strengthening of the apparatus of stimulus already being implemented.

The expectations are prone to a possible opening to the hypothesis of a rate cut and at the same time that the "quantitative easing" will continue "at least until March 2017 or until it is firmly centered on the inflation target", anticipating, in words, an extension beyond the expiration date indicated.

The 8 September-meeting could be the perfect opportunity to extend the term of the quantitative easing plan than the current maturing in March 2017. According to Barclays, Brexit exert a significant downward pressure necessitating additional policy actions by the ECB, possibly by September. The British-home business sees the extension of QE for six to nine months coupled with the recalibration of some of the EQ parameters.

Also according to Franck Dixmier, Global Head of Fixed Income at Allianz Global Investors, the next most likely step by the ECB is represented by an extension of the expiry of Quantitative Easing (QE) or some changes in internal rules applied by the ECB for the implementation of the purchase.