IMF cuts world GDP forecasts for Brexit surprise

The shadow of Brexit stretches out on the global growth forecasts made by the International Monetary Fund, that according to the World Economic Outlook, has cut estimates on the world GDP in 2016 and 2017, respectively 3.1% and 3.4 %, compared to 3.2% and 3.5% indicated last April.

"The result of the vote in the UK, which has surprised the financial markets, implies the materialization of an important downside risk to the world economy. As a result – the report says – the global outlook for 2016-2017 It worsened, despite the better than expected performance. "

Opposite effect for the Euro area: the IMF sees growth in the single currency by 1.6% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017, compared to the respective + 1.5% and + 1, 6% estimated in April. However, the Fund says, "the growth prospects would have been slightly revised upwards for both 2016 and for 2017 were it not for the ricadure of the referendum in the UK." In fact, it is stated in the update of the report, growth in the euro area "was higher than expected" in the first quarter, "reflecting strong domestic demand and a rebound of some investments."

Among the major economies, the IMF estimates a GDP + 1.6% in 2016 and + 1.2% in 2017 in Germany, which has seen increasing by 0.1 points forecasts for this year and cut 0 , 4 for the next, and an increase of + 1.5% in 2016 and + 1.2% in 2017 to France, with a jump of 0.4 points estimated for this year and filings 0, 1 points to the next. Spain is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017, with the IMF which has left unchanged compared to April of this year and the figure revised down 0.2 points to the next while Italy's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017.