Jackson Hole: waiting for FED decision on US interest rates

Highly anticipated Jackson Hole meeting opens today, the symposium that brings together every year the central bankers from around the world organized by the Kansas City Fed. The president of the US central bank, Janet Yellen, together with the presidents of other central banks will find themselves arguing over out of the huge black hole inside the monetary policy, caused by the financial crisis of 2008.

Before the meeting, the member of the Fed, Stanley Fischer, said that monetary policy was not yet able to stimulate productivity growth. But governments ignore the demands of the central banks, leaving the presidents Janet Yellen (Fed), Mark Carney Bank of England), Mario Draghi (ECB) and Haruhiko Kuroda (BoJ) to carry the burden of economic stagnation.

The president of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will speak Friday and she could open to a monetary tightening in the four months before the end of 2016. This is because the market conditions are improving and the economy is moving towards the goals set by Fed . Certainly Yellen does not dictate the precise timing of the rise, but it is generally agreed among analysts that the governor should distribute a number of interesting clues to Wall Street.

In fact, for tomorrow it is expected mid-term review of the US GDP in the second quarter, and next week the figure for the August labor market: according to analysts it is likely that Yellen try to keep open all the doors to make it clear to investors that close monetary, however gradual, it may come soon.

Fundamental element that is opposed to an immediate increase is American politics: the race for the White House, with the vote in November, suggests that Yellen refrain from such a decision, at least until the games for the succession of Obama are not facts. But there are voices calling for a normalization of monetary policy to prevent bubbles or adverse scenarios on the markets.