London is facing Brexit impact on economy, research says

Research by think tank the Centre for London concludes that the looming EU exit could be a factor in reducing numbers of Europeans coming to the capital to work, a slowdown in job creation, declining business confidence and decelerating house price growth.

The report underlined an economic slowdown included deteriorating house prices and plummeting business confidence, coinciding with a drop in the numbers of Europeans registering to work.

The think tank found that registrations for new national insurance numbers by foreign workers have fallen by 15% in London during the last year, with three-quarters of the fall accounted for by a drop in EU migration.

And its research found that job growth was slowing for the first time since 2015 to lag behind the rate in the rest of the UK.

Year-on-year house price growth was under 3% for the three months to April 2017, the lowest level in London since 2012, while increases in private rental values dropped below 2% to their lowest rate since 2010.

The research noted that the capital’s unemployment rate is at a historic low of 5.5 per cent, last attained in December 2016.
Job growth in London is continuing, but is slowing for the first time since early 2015. The rate of job growth is now just below the rest of the UK’s, having been significantly higher in the years following the recession.

Ben Rogers, Founder and Director of Centre for London said: “London has shown remarkable resilience in the years following the recession. But its growth has not been painless. Levels of inequality have soared. Congestion, pollution and the housing shortage have all worsened.

“While no-one knows how Brexit will play out, this new analysis suggests that London’s economy is beginning to wobble. It also highlights the need to tackle London’s critical challenges to ensure it is in the best possible position to deal with Brexit.

“Through The London Intelligence, Centre for London will continue to deepen our understanding of how London is changing in real-time, and identify whether these are bumps in the road or changes in direction for London", he added.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan warned earlier in July that the city, where a large majority voted to remain in the EU, must not “pull up the drawbridge and close (its) doors to the skilled workforce (its) economy needs to thrive.”