Moody’s: US election 2016 risky for global growth

US November elections are a risk to the global economy. To say it is Moody's in a report entitled "Global Macro Outlook 2016-17 – Emerging market outlook stabilizes, while political risks take center stage".

"A shift in US policy which would contribute to weakening the current architecture of global trade and security could have a detrimental impact on global confidence and growth, and we would push to revise our estimates. Despite a global framework for growth to be stabilizing, there are a number of risks to the global economic outlook and the most immediate is associated with the American elections ".

According to the agency, the growth prospects of the United States remain robust, although estimates for 2016 were cut by 2 to 1.7%, while those of 2017 were unchanged expecting a rise in GDP of 2.3 % and very likely says Moody's, the Fed will again raise interest rates later this year.

That statement is supported, albeit partial, by William Dudley's words, president of the New York Fed, which had opened the hypothesis of an increase as early as September.

His words, however, were contradicted by James Bullard, the number one of the St. Louis Fed, that while excluding a US recession has provided a single rate hike until 2018. The conflicting statements reflect internal rift at the Fed, economists continue to believe that a rate hike next month is unlikely given the proximity to the vote in the United States. If the Fed decides to act, it will do in December, a year after its first rate increase since 2006.