Oil, Brexit and terrorism undermine global confidence

Fragility financial markets, oil prices' volatility, terrorism, Brexit and race for the White House. These are concerns that in the first three months of the year have resulted in a general decline in optimism from businesses about the economic outlook for the next 12 months. They are the most interesting figures of the last Ibr (International Business Report) Grant Thornton that the expectations of revenues, exports and R & D investment remains very low.

In detail, the businesses' optimism fell to 26% in the first quarter of 2016, the lowest figure since the fourth quarter of 2012. A trend that together the world's major economies: the United States the figure is down from 50% at the end of the year to 46%, in the UK from 73% to 44%. Only 13% (previous year 15%) expect an increase in exports over the next 12 months, the lowest percentage since 2010. The 18% were planning new investment in research and development (previous year 22%), employment hopes fall 24 % from 29% and only 35% believe in an increase in revenues in the next year.

"The overall decline in confidence – commented Giuseppe Bernoni, managing partner of Grant Thornton partner Bernoni – comes from the particular economic-political moment that the whole world is going through. Just think of the fears arising from the spread of terrorism, fears that in turn affect the stability of financial markets. There is a risk in this regression, but in reality moments like this are the long-term opportunities, and Italy seems to have understood this. "