Switzerland: SNB raised inflation estimates in 2016 and 2017

The new estimates of the Swiss central bank sees inflation mark an acceleration faster over the next few quarters. In the note accompanying the announcement of monetary policy, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has revised upwards its estimates for 2016 and 2017 with consumer price index -0.4% respectively (from -0.8% indicated last March) and + 0.3% (from the previous + 0.1%). however confirmed the estimate for 2018 to + 0.9%. The upside of the estimates primarily reflects the significant increase in oil prices over the past three months.

The institute confirms its forecast on the growth of the Swiss economy in 2016: gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand between 1.0% and 1.5%.

In the first quarter, GDP increased by 0.4% year on year and the indicators point to a further recovery, as reported by the press today. Exports should reinforce: this should improve the tendency of companies to invest, with positive effects on the labor market. The institute expects a stabilization of the unemployment rate in the second half of the year.

The central bank also believes that in the coming quarters of the world economy will continue its moderate growth. The risks remain significant and further turmoil may also arise from the UK referendum on the EU permanently.