Central Bank

The Fed announced that US interest rates will remain unchanged in a "gap" between 0.25% and 0.50% and are being revised downward GDP estimates. At the conclusion of a meeting of the FOMC, the Fed said it would continue to closely monitor the international economy. "All meetings are open," Janet Yellen said to reporters demanding information on a timing of a rate increase. "The state of the economy only guarantees gradual increases in interest rates," said Yellen, noting that in the current situation is ‘appropriate’ to maintain an approach "cautious" in monetary policy.

Carefully, Brexit risk is too high, it is what emerges from the report published today by the ECB, which remains cautious about the economic outlook with the prevalence of downside risks.

"The most recent data indicate a continuation of growth in the second quarter, albeit at a rate that may be lower than the first quarter – it says – in perspective, the Governing Council expects the economic recovery to proceed at a moderate but steady pace . domestic demand continues to be supported by the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. Conditions favorable financing and improvements in the profitability of the business they continue to promote investment. "

Similarly to the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, markets are starting to get nervous two weeks from the Brexit vote. A single poll by an independent newspaper showing 55% in favour of Brexit, was enough to spur doubt among investors. The volatility on European markets spiked up and oil fell 3% last Friday. The EUR/CHF is also particularly affected with 1 month implied volatility reaching the highest level since the summer of last year.

The drop in oil prices is a slowdown in global economic signal. This was stated by the European Central Bank (ECB) in anticipation of the Economic Bulletin, explaining that "while in 2014 most of the drop in oil prices could be explained by the significant increase in the supply of crude oil, the lowest price of the most recently is the reflection of the decline in global demand ".

The ECB warns that "even if the low price of oil may support domestic demand due to rising real incomes in the importing countries, this may not necessarily offset the wider effects of the weakening of global demand."

The Swiss National Bank will not change their interest rates despite the tensions that could arise on the occasion of the vote on a possible British, exit from the EU, according to the survey conducted by Reuters which listened to 36 economists. Experts agree that the SNB will maintain firm between -1.25% and -0.25% the fluctuation margin of the Libor, its main policy rate. Unchanged at -0.75%, they should remain even negative interest on the institution’s accounts around.

The Central Bank of Russia has cut interest rates citing more positive inflation trends and stable. The high inflation fears and still potentially rising reduces, the institute led by Governor Elvira Nabiullina has lowered the cost of money by 50 basis points, now fixed at 10.5% from 11% previously.

The last time the Bank of Russia has cut interest rates dates back to August 3, 2015, from 11.5% to 11%. "The easing of inflationary pressures allows us to hope for a sustainable reduction in the index of prices to below 5% in May 2017, to 4% target towards the end of next year," said the institute in a statement . The next meeting is expected on July 29.

ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at the Brussels Economic Forum, was very clear in the concept expressed: "In the countries of the euro area many structural reforms have been implemented in recent years, especially in those countries most affected by the crisis. The benefits are now visible . But there is still much to do. "

Although there are "many political understandable reasons for delaying structural reforms" in the country, the cost of such delays "is simply too high," he added insisting on the importance of national policies of reforms to support the interventions of the ECB in supporting Eurozone economy.

The yield on German 10-year Bund retouchs historic low. The record marked yesterday with an interest of 0.47% has been canceled today at the start of trading on European markets. The yield on the Bund falls to 0.33% and approaches the fateful zero.

All government bonds of the euro area are well procured from a few sessions but not with the intensity of the German 10-year. Meanwhile, today part of the plan purchases of corporate bonds non-bank by the ECB as part of the Qe and with the goal of bringing in 80 billion euro monthly purchases. Among the operators some fear that the Eurotower not reach at least 5 billion of corporate bonds and the level below € 3 billion would be read as a failure.