The eurozone economy continued to expand at a generally stable pace in August. However, the rate of increase fell to a minimum of 19 months, especially because of a slower rate of expansion in Germany.
The final reading of the PMI services sector, prepared by Markit, fell to 52.8 points from 52.9 points in July and below the earlier flash estimate of 53.1.
The common European currency is between two strong clusters against the US Dollar on Monday, as the currency exchange rate previously on Friday retreated from the 1.12 level by the end of day’s trading session. However, the resistance from the upside is stronger, as the support cluster, and the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a fall for the currency exchange rate during today’s trading session. Due to that, it is most likely that the Euro will depreciate against the Greenback by the end of Monday’s trading.
he greek bond market remains the most lucrative on the European scene. Athens has in fact placed 1.14 billion of six-month bonds offering a yield of 2.97%, unchanged from the previous auction. The demand from institutional investors was stable with a coverage ratio of 1.30. Yields also remain stable with decades of greek bonds offering a yield of 8.10% to the 70.30 price. As for bonds maturing in 2019 and 4.75% coupon, the rate stood at 8.60 compared with a price in area 91. The stabilization of prices is determined by the GDP, no longer in free fall, but in the process of settling.
The moment in which the securities issued or guaranteed by Greece will be included in the plan of the ECB purchases, ie Qe, are not yet certain. This is the content of the written response from the President of the institute, Mario Draghi, to request the Greek MEP Dimitrios Papadimoulis.
Greece will fail to achieve the goal of revenues from privatization this year. The target of € 3.7 billion is a mirage, it will be a success if the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund will bring in cash an amount of between 1.5 bln to 1.7 bln euro despite the acceleration of certain divestments in recent months . Yet the privatization plan is one of the cornerstones of the Athens bailout program, after three plans agreed with the EU and IMF 250 billion.
The EU Council will not give any sanction to Spain and Portugal for failure to meet the deficit. The Community body preferred to deal with the situation by giving more space to the two Iberian countries, which will still have to take corrective measures and present a new budget plan by October 2017.
The operations to be implemented in the fall will have to be aimed at reducing the budget deficit from 4.4% at end 2015 to 2.5% by the end of this year to Lisbon, and Madrid will have until 2018 to reach the target of 3% from 5.1% last year. Greater flexibility, and, for Spain, which will bring the 4.6% in December, 3.1% in 2017 and 2.2% by 2018, in the light of a more uncertain political situation given the lack of a permanent government by the end of 2015.
The economic recovery in the euro area continued, supported by domestic demand, while export growth remains modest. Looking ahead, the economic recovery should proceed at a moderate pace. The Economic ECB Monthly Bulletin explaining how "domestic demand continues to be supported by the transmission of monetary policy measures of the real economy ECB" but the risks to the outlook for growth "remain on the downside": Brexit, other geopolitical uncertainties, the outlook for growth contained in emerging markets.
"It ‘s likely that inflation rates remain very low in the coming months and then go back later in 2016 in large part due to the reasons of the base effects of change on-year rate of energy prices". In the newsletter it is stressed that with the support of the "monetary policy measures and the expected recovery of the economy, inflation rates are expected to rise further in 2017 and 2018".
The ECB continues to expect that interest rates will remain at levels equal to or lower than the current ones for an extended period of time, far beyond the horizon of the net asset purchases. "In economic bulletin states that" if necessary "Frankfurt ready to act "using all the tools available within its mandate."
Finally for the ECB, "the bank lending survey in the euro area for the second quarter of 2016 showed further improvement of the offer conditions of loans to businesses and households and the continuing increase in demand for all categories of loans. " Therefore, according to the institute in Frankfurt, "it is essential that the channel of bank loans continue to function properly."
Conflicting advice from Service PMI Index of the major Eurozone economies. In Italy, the indicator of the non-manufacturing recorded in July an increase to 52 points. The figure compares with 51.9 points the previous month and 51 points expected by analysts. As for Germany, the July PMI stood at 54.4 points against 54.6 points recorded in the estimate. Finally, at the Eurozone level, the PMI services amounted in July to 52.9 points against 52.7 points estimated.
Recall that a PMI Services, below 50, reports a contraction of the economy and a higher level indicates growth.
