Nothing surprising came out of this SNB meeting. The increase in the oil price is the main explanation of the upward revision of the inflation outlook. However, the effects of oil are short-termed. In a couple of months, this should disappear. The SNB sounds a bit too optimistic, in our view, on the US and European outlook, which will be also key to its monetary policy. Things might be slower than what the SNB displays.
Carefully, Brexit risk is too high, it is what emerges from the report published today by the ECB, which remains cautious about the economic outlook with the prevalence of downside risks.
"The most recent data indicate a continuation of growth in the second quarter, albeit at a rate that may be lower than the first quarter – it says – in perspective, the Governing Council expects the economic recovery to proceed at a moderate but steady pace . domestic demand continues to be supported by the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. Conditions favorable financing and improvements in the profitability of the business they continue to promote investment. "
The EU could soon introduce a regulation on payments in cash, by the Fourth Directive to combat money laundering by 2017. Brussels could impose at European level a ceiling for cash transactions of 5,000 euro. The proposal came from the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, who believes that establishing a European threshold, beyond which it would be forbidden to pay cash, would be the best solution.
Murdoch also intervenes in the referendum on Brexit through "Sun". The British newspaper largest circulation owned by Australian tycoon Rupert Murdoch, in fact invites voters to choose to leave the EU.
The result of the referendum on 23 June, will have consequences far-reaching and important political and economic implications, as well as in defense, on migration flows and on diplomatic relations between London and the rest of the world. According to the latest polls in the campaign for the release of the UK from the European Union, the ‘leave’ option appears in the lead by about seven points on that ‘remain’.
Swiss banks could benefit from a possible Brexit, while taking account of the turmoil that would affect the markets is what emerges in a conference organized by Reuters in Zurich today.
"In the area of asset management, the Swiss would take advantage of a Brexit" the director of the Swiss branch of the consulting firm Boston Consulting Group says, whereas London is the city where more billionaires, from Asians to Russians.
The day of the referendum for the Brexit is running and the latest survey, conducted by the Institute for Independent Orb, sees the Eurosceptics ahead by 10 percentage points: 55% of British voters believe that Britain should leave the EU compared to 45% who want to remain. It is one of the widest margins of advantage for the campaign Leave newly registered.
The Swiss National Bank will not change their interest rates despite the tensions that could arise on the occasion of the vote on a possible British, exit from the EU, according to the survey conducted by Reuters which listened to 36 economists. Experts agree that the SNB will maintain firm between -1.25% and -0.25% the fluctuation margin of the Libor, its main policy rate. Unchanged at -0.75%, they should remain even negative interest on the institution’s accounts around.
ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at the Brussels Economic Forum, was very clear in the concept expressed: "In the countries of the euro area many structural reforms have been implemented in recent years, especially in those countries most affected by the crisis. The benefits are now visible . But there is still much to do. "
Although there are "many political understandable reasons for delaying structural reforms" in the country, the cost of such delays "is simply too high," he added insisting on the importance of national policies of reforms to support the interventions of the ECB in supporting Eurozone economy.
