The most recent polls point to a vote of 44% vs. 40% in favour of remaining in the EU. But polls predictions missed the Scottish independence referendum and the 2015 UK general election. Betting markets currently attach a probability of 25-30% to the possibility of Brexit. Also if probably the UK will stay in the EU what could be the outcome in case of Brexit?
The ultra-low policy that a growing number of Central banks is pursuing is damaging the entire economic system. In his monthly Investment outlook Bill Gross warns investors about it and points out the way Janus Capital unconstrained portfolios deal with it.
Money markets will be focused not only on the ECB’s decision in March on the depo rate but also on any suggestion of further actions later in the year, given the current expectation of a cumulative 30bp cuts by year-end
We think authorities should focus on improving the insolvency framework and enhancing the efficiency of the collateral recovery process. This would contribute to improve rating valuations of ABS backed by NPLs, thus increasing market pricing, the likelihood of getting State
Weakness was broad-based across components as both core and non-core prices declined (on a y/y basis). The fall in the latter looks particularly concerning, in our view
Money markets will be focused not only on the ECB’s decision in March on the depo rate but also on any suggestion of further actions later in the year, given the current expectation of a cumulative 25-30bp cuts by year-end.
Goldman Sachs said the net effect of the recent market volatility on Europe’s growth outlook is likely to be relatively small with the boost to growth from lower oil prices offsetting the hit from weaker equity prices and a stronger Euro exchange rate
The ECB last week, in several statements, took the opportunity to clarify bank capital requirements. We think this was a conscious effort to provide a higher degree of certainty to the market, post the aggressive bank sell-off earlier this year.
