Europe

The UK & EU: Exit Emergency

Financial market and global economic uncertainty have been key features of the first few weeks of 2016. One of the most important sources of uncertainty for the UK, however, revolves around a known event – the forthcoming referendum on EU membership, likely to be held this summer.

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Waiting for the central bank response

The sell-off in risky assets has continued over the past month and the move into safe fixed income assets such as US treasuries and Bunds has intensified and the outright 10Y yield level in, for example, Germany has fallen to a level not seen since April 2015.

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Negative waves

The markets entered 2016 on a pessimistic note. Their mood has deteriorated further. Alongside well known uncertainties (oil, China, Fed), concerns have now emerged that the banking and financial sector will suffer a wave of defaults (by companies or even oil states), leading it to stem the flow of credit to the economy. Economic growth, already….

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