Fed

The Fed has finally delivered a second rate hike a year after the last one in this cycle.

“What’s more interesting is their guidance on where interest rates might go from here. This time last year the Fed turned out to be wildly off mark in what they were predicting. But this year there are reasons for thinking the Fed’s guidance is more realistic. The economy is in a more advanced stage of recovery and market pricing reflects this. We can expect rates to slowly climb through next year and beyond.”

The Fed is almost certainly going to hike, so this meeting is more about the guidance on interest rates next year.

This Newsletter has reiterated that bonds are not an asset class that should be in one`s portfolio unless they are safe short-term high-yield corporate issues. The election victory of Donald Trump seems to have been the catalyst that set off a global rout for fixed-income securities. 10yr Treasuries yield increased from 1.88% on 8th November to 2.34% on 18th November 2016. Of course, if the yield increases, that means that the price on paper in the secondary market decreases.

The Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates "relatively soon" if economic data keeps pointing to an improving labor market and rising inflation, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday in a clear hint the U.S. central bank could hike next month.

"Such an increase could well become appropriate relatively soon," Yellen said in prepared remarks that were her first public comments since the United States elected Republican Donald Trump to be the country’s next president.

US dollar is overvalued and that investors would do well to move out of that currency. In the long run the national debt, which is currently 106% of GDP, and the balance of payments deficit, currently running at about 40 to 45 billion dollars a month, are unsustainable. Of course the US is the largest single economy globally and has huge reserves of coal, oil and gas besides extensive farming land. So it is not to be expected that the US dollar is going to collapse. It could soon however gradually lose 20% to 30% of its current value.

D. Salvatore, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Director of the Global Economic Policy Center at Fordham University (New York), will examine the prospects and policies for United States, Europe, Japan, China , India, Brazil and Russia to overcome recession and return to rapid growth.

According to the FED, the recovery after the crisis of 2008 is coming along nicely although it is a bit slower in Europe. The FOMC is still debating whether a rise in interest rates is indicated, and December seems to be the right month for another rise of 25 basis points.

he German bunds rallied Thursday after the United States Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and downgraded the economic outlook, encouraging investors to seek safe-haven assets.

At its two-day meeting, ended on Wednesday, the U.S. central bank held its target range on short-term rates unchanged at 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent, leaving the door open for a possible rate increase in December.