Metals

The rapid rise in interest rates during H2 2016 and the concomitant fall of Gold prices did bring back memories of the 2012 -2013 sell-off of the Golden metal. Yet, we believe that this time is different: while the 2012-2013 was driven by the prospects of tapering which led to a subsequent rise in real interest rates, the current environment is more reflationary with measured improvement in inflation and growth worldwide. These economic dynamics should be supportive for Gold prices over the next 12 to 18 months. We would hence consider Gold as a reflationary asset with a defensive twist.

According to the latest reports, US inflation rose, while real interest rates remained negative, therefore, analysts are expecting a boost in demand for gold. Do you share this point of view or not? Why?

I do share this point of view because there is a strong negative correlation between real interest rates and the gold price.

Some experts think that China and Russia both significantly increase gold reserves in order to lower US government’s control on the value of their assets. Analysts suggest that this may weaken the US Dollar and push gold prices higher. Are you of the same opinion or not? Why?

I do not think that it is a reasonable assumption, because the available data simply does not support this opinion. China, for instance, reported its figures on foreign exchange reserves for March, according to which the Chinese Central Bank did not buy any gold for the fifth consecutive month. In the meantime, Russia increased its gold reserves, though not by the same magnitude as in the recent years, with monthly buying volumes being lower than two or three years ago.

On Friday morning the yellow metal’s price remained rather unchanged, as the bullion fluctuated just above the 1,225 mark. Previously, during Thursday’s trading session the bullion extended the gains, which it scored on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. However, at the 1,233.59 mark the bullion encountered the resistance of a medium term descending channel, which proved strong enough to cause a minor decline in the commodity price. It is most likely that the bullion will make another attempt to break higher, as on Friday morning the decline has stopped, and the yellow metal has begun to approach the weekly R1, which is located at the 1,228.89 level.

Germany completed the transfer of $13 billion in gold reserves from New York to Frankfurt, the Bundesbank announced on Thursday. The transfer is one step in a plan developed by Germany’s central bank in 2013 that aims to repatriate half the gold reserves it keeps abroad during the Cold War. The final transfer is expected from Paris later this year, completing the project three years ahead of schedule.

Stashed away at the height of the Cold War in safe havens well out of Moscow’s reach, the 3,378-tonne, 120 billion-euro gold stockpile has become a symbol of Germany’s economic ascent and a guardian of its stability. Germany is not bringing home its gold bullion in response to concerns about President Trump’s monetary policy, officials said.

Switzerland’s gold exports to China surged to their highest on record in December at 158 tonnes, data from the Swiss customs bureau showed on Thursday, nearly triple the level of the same month a year earlier.

According to Eddie van der Walt as reported on the Bloomberg terminal this morning, total Swiss gold exports surged to 287.6 tons in December (valued at CHF 10.8b), their highest since May 2013 in December, according to data on the website of the Swiss Federal Customs Administration.

Gold exports to China in December “were the highest since at least January 2014” according to Bloomberg. Most of the exports to China are in the form of investment grade gold bars in the one kilogramme gold bar format which is used by Chinese investors, institutions, exchange traded funds (ETF) and indeed the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

The yellow metal surged in the early hours of Friday’s trading session. However, such a tendency has been seen throughout this week, as either scalpers take profit during the Asian session or there exists a negative sentiment on the US Dollar in Asia due to other fundamental reasons. Although, in the second half of the day of the GMT time zone the bullion steadily continues to fall. It is most likely that Friday’s trading session will be no different from the few previous, as there are usually no gradual changed in finance in the period up to Christmas.

An agreement between oil producer club OPEC and Russia to produce less to drain a global glut sent prices soaring in record trading volumes on Thursday, even as analysts warned other producers will likely top up supply.

On Wednesday in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a deal to reduce their oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day in order to raise global prices.

The deal also hinges on non-OPEC countries contributing an additional 600,000 barrels per day worth of cuts, with about half of that coming from Russia. On Thursday Azerbaijan said it was also willing to engage in talks on cuts.

The yellow metal was in a full on retreat on Friday morning, as it had erased all of Thursday’s gains. However, the situation seems only temporary, as the metal is still set to surge, as it is indicated by various factors. First of all, the metal has reached the support provided by the weekly R2 at 1,296.73. Secondly, trader set up orders are mostly long. Third is the fact that daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge. Last but not least, the US election is not over and the drama will continue.