Sicav

As a stock picker and value investor I rarely get involved in discussing macro issues during Investment Committees or during meetings with clients. Anyway, since talking about Trump, Macron, volatility and US Non-Farm Payrolls seems to be fund managers’ main occupation, I’ll try my best… But please, as grandpa Warren once told us, always remember: “Market forecasters will fill your ear but never fill your wallet”.

The swings of economies and financial markets resemble the swings of a pendulum. They spend most of the time oscillating near the average, swinging toward or away from the extremes of the arc. But when they reach one extreme you can be sure that sooner or later they are going to swing back to the midpoint. That’s because the effort needed to reach the extreme is the premise for the swing back. It goes without saying that investors don’t have to get caught in that movement (…and hopefully profit from that).
But, and there is one big fat “BUT”: no one can constantly and correctly predict the timing of the “swing back”.
The only thing that we can do is trying to figure out what the market conditions are at present. In better words: “We may never know where we’re going, but we’d better have a good idea where we are” (H. Marks).