Venezuela fighting a very serious economic crisis: near default?

Venezuela is at risk of default: according to a recent report of the rating agency Moody's, is "highly unlikely" that Venezuela has this year of foreign currency sufficient to meet its payments. The default would hit before the state oil company, PDVSA, followed by the Caracas government.

The situation in the country is very serious and in all respects. The International Monetary Fund now estimates that GDP will fall by 8% this year and that inflation will rise to 480%. Foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $ 12 billion, the lowest level since 2003, of which perhaps just 1.5 to 2.0 billion are readily liquid.

The serious economic and financial crisis is closely linked to that political-institutional. The opposition, which at last December's parliamentary elections have triumphed, winning more than two-thirds of the seats, have collected signatures to end the mandate of President Nicolas Maduro, who otherwise would expire in 2019.

The signatures are now under review by the National Electoral Commission, and if it came the consent, within the year a referendum should take to ask voters to decide whether to send home well ahead Maduro. As a result of the political chaos that reigns in the sudamerican country, analysts predict a possible default on the horizon. According to credit default swaps, insurance stocks against crash risk, the odds that such an event to happen between now and a year would be 60%.