The stock markets are still setting record highs, and the price of crude oil has gone over US$ 60 per barrel. Opinions are divided on whether the surge in oil prices will be sustained or fall back. There are various factors influencing the price like the OPEC agreement to cut back production and the question whether American shale oil production will increase. There are, of course, geopolitical considerations that could lead to developments not entirely positive.
Magnus Arveng: "I have no doubt that technology is going to drastically change the world we live in. And I think we live in one of the most interesting time periods of humankind to be alive. But whether or not our technological advancements are exclusively for the better remains an open question"
US dollar weakness at the end of 2017 and the start of 2018 has made it clear that traders are going to have to be careful with dollar futures. On Friday, 12thJanuary 2018, the euro was trading at 1.2202 against the US dollar with an increase of 1.41% for the day (+0.0170). That the dollar is weakening seems odd as the Fed has clearly given forward guidance for three more interest rate increases in 2018. Given that, one would expect a stronger dollar especially as QT (Quantitative Tightening) has only begun.
There has been much debate over the potentially negative impact of information overload on productivity, as opposed to the positive benefits from lower search costs.
When the Fed raises interest rates, a recession usually follows, and this would mean the calculations of the budget office would be very far off the mark as tax income would markedly decrease.
Brexit, the role of the emerging markets, financial crisis, fintech: the impact of asset management.
The price of the US dollar in Forex markets will be influenced by the success and subsequent decline of Bitcoin while at the same time the Chinese support the yuan as an international reserve currency and continue putting more renminbi in circulation.
People are becoming more and more frustrated. Donald Trump is not the end result, he’s the harbinger, the beginning of where we are going.
